Keeper Of The Court

Following the 2010-11 finals which included a stupendous eight point performance by Lebron James, I was the guy that said: “It’s clear now. A healthy CP3 is the best player in the league.” Did I believe that 100%, day-in and day-out? I didn’t. Truthfully, I only thought it was slightly possible until Lebron’s collection of puzzling performances.

But despite Lebron’s monster 2012 season, I’m once again here to say: the gap isn’t as big as you think. Yep – that “talent” or “value” gap between Miami Heat Small Forward Lebron James and Los Angeles Clippers Point Guard Chris Paul? It’s closer to that of Larry and Magic than Michael and Kobe.

Wait a second. A soon-to-be unanimous MVP winner for the third time, a near DPOY, one of the best all-around players in the history of the game – can he really be challenged by a 6’0”, 175 pound point guard who’s not as spry as he once was?

In order to tackle this prickly porcupine, we need to address the talent at the point guard position first – to make sure Chris Paul is indeed worthy of this hefty claim. Removing any and all bias, here are my ratings by category -

So what separates Chris Paul from other elite point guards?

Scoring Ability – Rose (9.1), Paul (9.0), Parker (8.9), Westbrook (8.8), Williams (8.5), Nash (7.7), Rondo (7.0). Notes: Paul’s score of 9.0 isn’t in accordance with his PPG compared to others, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a better scorer than some of them. He, like Nash, puts teammates first.

Shooting – Nash (9.9), Paul (9.4), Williams (9.3), Rose (9.1), Parker (9.0), Westbrook (8.6), Rondo (7.2).

Rebounding – Westbrook (6.6), Rondo (6.5), Paul (5.9), Rose (5.8), Nash (5.4), Williams (5.3), Parker (5.1). Notes: Westbrook and Rondo are both fantastic rebounders, but Westbrook gets the edge because of his offensive rebounding and Rondo’s lack of rebounders around him.

Defense – Paul (7.4), Rondo (7.4), Williams (7.2), Westbrook (7.0), Parker (6.8), Rose 6.7), Nash (5.5). Notes: Rondo and Paul are the best defenders here. Rondo is a more versatile defender and more effective at guarding taller players, but Paul’s activity is just so crucial. He’s an absolute pest.

Ball Control – Paul (9.8), Parker (9.5), Nash (9.4), Rose (9.2), Rondo (9.1), Williams (8.9), Westbrook (8.5). Notes: Looking at turnovers doesn’t tell the whole story here. Nash has a lot of turnovers, but many are a result of the offense he is forced to try to create in Phoenix; he must commit risky passes which have high reward. Parker and Westbrook look to score more than dish, but one of them is much more careful with the ball.

Basketball IQ – Paul (9.8), Nash (9.7), Parker (9.6), Rondo (9.6), Williams (9.3), Rose (8.6), Westbrook (8.3). Notes: Nash and Paul are two of the highest IQ players I have seen in my lifetime. One is the master of operating the pick and roll offense, one is the master of keeping his dribble alive and creating space, and both are masterful at their craft.

Passing Ability – Nash (9.8), Rondo (9.7), Paul (9.5), Williams (9.3), Rose (9.1), Parker (8.9), Westbrook (8.3).

Total – Paul (60.8), Parker (57.8), Williams (57.8), Rose (57.6), Nash (57.4), Rondo (56.5), Westbrook (56.0).

Keep in mind, these categories are not weighted. What this total looks to represent is the all-around abilities of these point guards. For the point guard position, it’s quite plausible that basketball IQ is the most important category since it affects all other categories – and in most systems, scoring ability is less important than passing (this would explain why Rondo is so low). Regardless, not only does Paul come out on top by a reasonable amount via the above calculations, he has incredible numbers in the four most important categories for point guards: Basketball IQ (9.8), Passing Ability (9.5), Ball Control (9.8), and Scoring (9.0).

Precisely why Paul stands out:

– A top ballhandler of all-time
– Extremely efficient scoring ability (rivaled by only all-time point guards)
– The 3rd highest steal per game average in NBA history
– 2nd highest offensive rating ever
– Top 10 passer of all-time
– Uses his body to protect the ball and break down defenses with calculated assaults

Now: the small things. This is where Chris Paul glistens. Paul is one of the few players I do not hesitate to call clutch. In 2011-12, Paul was 5th in the league in crunchtime scoring and first in the league in 4th quarter PER, with an impressive mark of 38.7.

Paul is the first one on the floor when the ball becomes loose. If you think this isn’t an important quality, you’re kidding yourself.

And we’ve all noticed his chattiness: Chris Paul is constantly barking orders at teammates, busy dictating the entire offense, and can still be seen throwing out advice while he’s on the bench. He’s even talking to the officials every time the game stops. But realize this: Chris is better at working the officials than anyone we’ve ever seen. Sure, superstars get calls all the time, but Chris Paul is actively changing how referees think. He’s telling them what’s going to happen ahead of time, how to call it, and doing such with absolute charm (do his beautiful eyelashes come into play here? I’m not sure). It’s like a gambler being best friends with all the Blackjack dealers in Vegas. For entertainment purposes, take it upon yourself to count how many times he has his arm around an official in a single game. Here’s an example of him swinging a call the Clippers had no business getting, and his usual “friendliness” towards referees:

When you first look at his abilities and then throw all of the small things – his ability to coach his teammates and sway referees, his undeniable ability to thrive in crunch time, his cutthroat-nature and competitive drive – there is really no case for other point guards.

Onto Lebron James:

Scoring Ability – 9.5

Shooting – 8.6

Rebounding – 8.5

Defense – 9.4

Ball Control – 8.3

Basketball IQ – 8.7

Passing Ability – 9.0

Lebron James comes out with an even 62.0. He is unmatched physically, one of the game’s best scorers and passers, and also one of its best defenders; he beats Paul (60.8) by a noticeable margin. But why is it that the question “Who is the league’s best point guard?” comes up far more than “Who is better, Paul or James?” The gap in all-around talent between Paul and Lebron is actually less than that between Paul and other point guards, and we haven’t even factored in the intangibles yet – where James happens to get blown out of the water.

Yep, Paul has a lion heart that beats with a pulse that his teammates can feel. He’s a better coach. He gets his teammates involved until he’s absolutely needed. He consistently draws charges and frustrates opponents. Because of him, when the Clippers are playing, calls don’t go 50/50. And with the game on the line, Paul is as surefire as they come (though Lebron James is not nearly as bad in the clutch as the media makes him out to be).

While James impacts the game slightly more by himself, Paul greater impacts his teammates’ abilities, their drive, their confidence, and sometimes, their overall chances. This is what value truly is (Nash, I see you too). I won’t review how Chris Paul is more well-rounded than other elite point guards, I won’t bring up his incredible offensive rating of 126, his otherworldly 4.5 assist to turnover ratio, that his PER is incredibly high for his position, the fact that he’s carrying a very mediocre basketball team further than he should be … just remember that Chris Paul is that dude that’s always doing the little things, the things that his team needs him to. And that’s why he’s just so valuable.

What does Kobe think about all this?

Rejoice, Want-To-Smite-Hollingerites! KOTC is here to precisely explain why stats aren’t everything. With a simple understanding of each statistic’s true substance, you can easily confute your buddies’ flawed arguments regarding the abilities, performances, and/or tendencies of teams and players.

Most basketball enthusiasts have likely heard the saying, “Every stat is flawed.” But to what degree are they flawed? And in what ways? More importantly, perhaps, how are they misunderstood or misused? Let’s review.

Points – The most basic and lovable of all statistics in basketball. How does a team win a basketball game? Simply by scoring the most points. Scoring points not only looks good, points are undeniably valuable – higher point totals are generally correlated with more value considering that they only true “necessary” statistic to accumulate for one to become victorious.

Misuse – Using points as a barometer for success is only an accurate measure if certain things are also taken into consideration: Field Goal Attempts, Field Goal Percentage, Minutes Played, and the opposing team’s defensive ability.

Misinterpretation –

Player A: 33 points, 9-13 shooting.
Player B: 30 points, 10-12 shooting.

Who had a better game? Hopefully you went with Player B. Even if you score more points this doesn’t equate to you having played a better game. Efficiency matters. Just because you didn’t score points, it doesn’t mean you didn’t help your teammates score them; it also doesn’t mean you didn’t prevent the other team from scoring extra.

Assists – The assist statistic looks to suggest how much a player is helping his teammates score their baskets. Assist totals can be a good indicator of this, but there are some things to note.

Misinterpretation – Assist totals depend on four major things: 1) Passing ability, 2) the capabilities of your teammates, 3) the tendencies of your teammates, and 4) the amount you possess the ball. The second one, you absolutely no control of. With the third and fourth, you may not have much say, either. This is important to consider when looking at assist numbers.

Also: Saying Player A is a superior passer to Player B because he averages more assists is the wrong conclusion to reach. The reality is that many baskets are scored when there is essentially no help given, yet, an assist is recorded. The exact opposite applies to many situations as well (occurrence of hockey assists, unnecessary dribbles, etc.).

Steals – Steals are pretty straightforward – how much a player is taking the opposition’s possessions and making them his own via snatching the ball. This number in the box score is a decent indicator of how much one pesters their opponents, but not always.

Misuse – When identifying a player’s defensive ability, despite it being not a very reliable indicator, people will use steals.  Players who gamble a lot and poke at the ball will often produce high steal totals, but this doesn’t mean they are necessarily playing effective defense.  Case and point: Bruce Bowen. One of the best perimeter defenders ever, and averaged a mere 0.8 steals per game over his career.

Blocks – Block totals signify how many times a player redirects the opposition’s shot, disallowing them a scoring opportunity on that particular attempt. Blocks are one of my favorite statistics because block totals are quite telling of defensive activity and they are a reliable statistic at the same time. The capability or incapability teammates, for one, doesn’t really affect your production in this category.

Misuse – Similar to steals, people will often use blocks to gauge a player’s defensive worth. But consider: Good shot blockers often alter many shots. This is very valuable, yet it’s not written down in the stat sheet. I can average 142 blocks and be a better defensive player than you even if you average 185. I can also assure the shots I block are retrievable by my teammates (Duncan), and this is of more worth than if I were to block shots in a way that sends them out of bounds (Howard). It’s important to consider that I can also block slightly less, but if I foul significantly less as well, I should be deemed a better shotblocker, too. So – while blocks totals are indicative of a certain type of activity, they do not accurately represent a player’s defensive ability.

Total Rebounds – Controlling the rebounds means you are guaranteeing your team a certain number of possessions. Rebounds are very valuable and a rather telling statistic, but there are additional things to consider.

Misinterpretation – Not all of the important information is given when looking at Total Rebounds. Though they are lumped together in this statistic, offensive rebounds are unquestionably more valuable than defensive rebounds – they are so valuable that a leading sports economist and analyst over the years, David Berri, went as far as to assign offensive rebounds 3.82 points in his calculations. Not to mention that again, numbers in this category are dependent on teammate ability.

Turnovers – The true importance of this statistic is often overlooked. The act of a turnover is much worse than something like a missed shot; it guarantees that your team has no more looks at the basket and it often gives the other team a prime opportunity to score. Still, this statistic is misused in some circumstances.

Misuse: Turnover totals dependent on how much you are in possession of the ball. This is one of the reasons why Chris Paul and Jose Calderon (whoa!) are incredible point guards. Jeremy Lin received a lot of flak for his high turnover rate this season, and rightly so, but it looks better when you take into account how much he was being expected to produce for his team by his lonesome.

(ADV) Player Efficiency Rating – A simple rating designed to estimate a player’s total contributions while on the floor. A very telling statistic, but not always applicable and not always indicative of true worth – especially with role players.

Misinterpretation – Many regard PER as some sort of all-telling statistic. The fact is it has many noticeable flaws. On this very website, I have challenged the merit of PER before. To keep it short, Player Efficiency has five noticeable issues:

1. It rewards inefficient shooting. Players can improve their PER by shooting a mere 30.4% (more efficient scoring is more highly rewarded in this formula, of course).
2. It overvalues rebounds. John Hollinger gives more value to rebounds than most other statisticians.
3. The formula relies on estimates and approximations and applies them to all players when calculating their rating.
4. The formula does not reward players for defense seen outside of stealing, blocking, and refraining from fouling.
5. It does not account for special circumstances such as players playing exclusively in “garbage time” or against second units exclusively.

(ADV) Usage Rate – The concept of Usage Rate is rather simple: How much of a team’s possessions a player uses for himself. However, the problem with this statistic largely with how it’s misinterpreted.

Misinterpretation: Field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers – these are the only three things that constitute the “usage” of a team’s possession. Having a low usage rate does not mean that you don’t have the ball in your hands a large percentage of the time. Furthermore, having a low usage rate and getting a lot of assists does not mean you’re extra good, rather, it means you pass the ball before you shoot it.

(ADV) Assist Percentage – Just like assists, assist percentages are dependent on four different things. See: Assists.

(ADV) Offensive Rating – A number that looks to indicate a player’s efficiency at producing points for his team. A “produced point”, in this formula, occurs when a player makes a field goal, free throw, gets an offensive rebound, or gets an assist. The rate at which these events occur in relation to a player using a “possession” is how his offensive rating is determined. An unsuccessful possession occurs with a missed field goal or free throw that the defense rebounds, or a turnover.

Misinterpretation: Having a high offensive rating does not mean you are a great offensive player – in fact, sometimes, it means quite the opposite. Situational scorers like Tyson Chandler and Joel Anthony will have high offensive ratings because they only look to score when it is possible for them. They will not accrue many missed field goals or turnovers, and furthermore, their misses are often short shots that are easily rebounded by the offense. This of course does not mean they are a better offensive players than many talented perimeter scorers, for instance.

Relax guys, my defensive rating is 93!

(ADV) Defensive Rating – Defensive Rating is used to describe a player’s defensive contributions while on the floor. It is essentially the defensive version of Plus Minus. Overall, it’s not a very reliable statistic. This is because it is highly dependent on the product of your teammates – if they do a great job of stopping the offense from scoring, your individual rating will benefit. See: Carlos Boozer.

Game Winners – Statheads like myself love the in-depth nature of 82games.com, but those with an agenda may choose to cherry pick it’s most deceptive, and frankly, meaningless stat: Game Winners. While addrsesing a different point, I alluded to the fact that efficiency matters when reviewing statistics. It really matters in this case because a missed shot oftens leads to a lost game. There is a reason why I cringe when many claim Kobe Bryant to be one of the clutchest performers in the history of sports: He has many made shots (selective memory), but he has many, many misses. People forget to consider not only the field goal percentage of players in such situations, but how many opportunities they are going to get to score – plays run for them, the ball fed to them, and so on.

Plus Minus – Generally speaking, Plus Minus is not improperly used or misunderstood. But when drawing conclusions, there are things to be considered. Plus Minus attempts to illustrate how much impact a player has on the overall score when on the floor. This can be valuable information, but only if concerning large sample sizes and when the player is playing with a variety of units. This is because his individual numbers will be impacted by the performances of everyone else on the floor.

Alright, bear with me a little longer. We’ve made it through the tough part. We know how much stats offer, and what they don’t really offer (at this point I hope you’ll agree that it’s a significant amount). But here’s where stats are completely lacking – parts of the game for which there are no stats whatsoever:

Defensive Ability – Blocks and steals are poor indicators of a player’s defensive output. Defensive rating is highly influenced by the abilities of a player’s teammates. So what statistic out there tells when a player makes his opponent work extra hard on every possession? Does all the things that irk him? Pushes him out of his favorite spots, makes him take low percentage shots, and forces him to go directions he doesn’t like? There isn’t one.

Basketball IQ – A huge one. Inexperienced players and the sons of Peter Griffin, i.e. Blake, would likely post poor numbers if this were a statistic. Having a high or low basketball IQ affects the majority of things you partake in as a basketball player. A player can have killer statistics yet be much less valuable than such numbers might suggest. This may be the case if they take poor shots (if you’re Blake Griffin, you take poor “dunks” that result in automatic offensive fouls and near-injuries), take shots at inopportune times, don’t pass well, don’t screen or space well, don’t defend well, put their teammates in a bad position, foul excessively or at the wrong time, turn the ball over excessively, and so on.

Hustle Points – Securing a loose ball in the closing seconds can do wonders for your team, but it doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. The potential benefits for providing that extra bit of hustle? It’s a long list: Cutting extra quickly to create just enough space for a passer to connect on a pass so you can score; rotating a little bit harder to keep your team’s defense that much more crisp; outmuscling everyone for that rebound when the game is on the line; sprinting your fastest to get back and defend in transition; defending everyone to the best of your ability despite any physical disadvantage  … if there were a statistic for these things, Anderson Varejao would lead in it and I think that deep down, that pains all of us. But it’s still important.

Teamwork Points – Steve. Nash. Yes, the dude passes well. But he also has everyone on his team passing more, congratulating each other after nice plays, helping each other up, and even has them on proper diet regimens. Basketball is a team sport, and what you do to bring your team to come together as “one” is invaluable. Show me a statistic for that.

Stats – they are great, but only if you know what you’re doing with them. And basketball? Even more wonderful, because analyzing it calls for a balance of  statistical understanding and various intricacies that the numbers can’t describe. There’s really nothing like it.

Well, we made it. After a seemingly never-ending lockout and a chaotic series of events we classify as the “2011-12 Regular Season”, the playoffs are finally here. This year’s predictions:

WEST 1st ROUND

(4) Memphis vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers

One of the most intriguing matchups over the span of the playoffs, as both teams have qualities that pose as problems for one another. Memphis has big athletic wings, great defense, and enough offensive options to confuse the Clippers’ unsure defense. LAC has Griffin’s athleticism, a better bench, and this dude named CP3 or some’. 4-3 Memphis.

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas

I ache to put Dallas – a team that made 2011 OKC appear youthfully befuddled – as the winner here. But I just can’t, as there is too much of a gap in their offensive abilities this year. OKC boasted the number one offense throughout the regular season, and Dallas’ rank sat at a dismissible twenty-second in the league. Granted, OKC’s offense will worsen (see: http://www.keeperofthecourt.com/2012/03/29/oklahoma-city-empty-hope/) and Dallas’ will likely improve via the heroics of Nowizki and the intelligence of Carlisle, but the Mavs aren’t quite the same this year. 4-2 Thunder.

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah

Utah is playing some great basketball, and their style is suited for playoffs. But the Spurs are just too darn good right now. Their great team passing, perimeter-orientated nature, and quick pace all spell trouble for the Jazz. 4-1 Spurs.

(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets

Artest is out of the series? I see this mattering very little against the Denver Nuggets. Barnes has risen to a level we didn’t know he still had (an underrated rebounder and defender) and can easily fill any Artest-left void. “Bigs” pose as a huge problem for the Nuggets – not only do the Nuggets lack size and consistency in post defense to counter Bynum and Gasol, McGee will likely score on his own team’s basket.  4-2 Lakers.

EAST 1st ROUND

(4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta

We really don’t have any idea how tired players are after this chaotic series of events we classify as the “2011-12 season”. Though they should, I predict Boston won’t have quite enough in the tank to easily dismiss a young, seemingly-will-never-understand Hawks roster. Even given this fatigue of theirs, though, not having Horford hurts Atlanta’s chances to clear the hump, and intelligent basketball, star power, and superior coaching by the will Celtics prevail. 4-3 Celtics.

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando

Simple pick. The Magic are without their best asset (if you said to yourself, “They are without their 3 point shooting?” give yourself a slap), there are embarrassing issues lingering concerning relations between the coach and their players, and Indiana is at the top of their game and has a lot to prove. 4-0 Pacers.

(1) Chicago vs. (8) Philadelphia

I’d love to see Iggy go berserk. I’d love to see Philadelphia throw something at Chicago, something other than somewhat-capable offensive players that provide brief flashes of excellence. But it won’t happen. Expect a nitty-gritty series where Philly is eventually overwhelmed by Chicago’s superior offense and roster. 4-1 Bulls.

(2) Miami vs. (7) New York

My second pick for most entertaining series in the playoffs. NYK failed to establish any identity for themselves all season; luckily, they recently figured out what works for them. Can they maintain this style of play offensively, given that Amare’s back?

I see Amare’s presence adding uncertainty to their tactical approach. Furthermore, NYK’s Melo-oriented offense won’t last long in a series when the other team has extra time to prepare and adjust, and Lebron James – one of the only players that can match Melo both physically and talent-wise – is waiting to pounce. NYK’s high turnover rate will also have Miami drooling at the mouth. In sum, anticipate an entertaining series with great matchups – Shumpert/Wade, LBJ/Melo, and Chandler’s forearm/LBJ – with a score that won’t end up being so close. 4-1 Heat.

WEST 2nd ROUND

Memphis (4) vs San Antonio (1)

Let’s review a discovery of mine:

Last year when these teams matched up, Randolph and Gasol as a pair averaged 35.62 points, 21.5 rebounds on 51% shooting. Blair, Duncan, Splitter, and McDyess – four bigs, mind you – averaged 29.28 points, 23.17 rebounds on 45.77% shooting. This looks bad, right?

Consider this: The Spurs are not only better than last year in nearly every aspect, they are rested, healthy, and they are surging. Consider that they have Boris Diaw and a greatly improved Tiago Splitter to combat against a hobbling Randolph (and Gasol). Then consider that at this point last year, that nothing-to-lose Memphis Grizzlies team was certainly a better team than they are now. Oh, and Popovich will never, ever lose two consecutive series to a team that isn’t superior. 4-1 Spurs.

Oklahoma City (1) vs. Los Angeles (3)

OKC’s greatest advantage over LA in the recent past has been their superiority at the point guard position. This glaring weakness of LA’s is no more. LA’s coming into a nice stride here as the season ends, Gasol often plays well versus the Thunder, and Kobe’s newfound trust in his teammates could prove key. I also believe Artest will slow down Durant significantly just as he did two years ago. 4-3 Lakers.

EAST 2nd ROUND

(2) Miami vs. (3) Indiana

Indiana will have two distinct advantages: Roy Hibbert and rebounding. The Heat have essentially everything else in their favor. 4-1 Heat.

(1) Chicago vs. (4) Boston

The Bradley-Rose matchup will be entertaining to see provided my picks aren’t completely off and this writing is in vain. However, Chicago matches up very well with Boston in just about every way. Chicago is certainly better on both ends and will absolutely crush Boston on rebounds, the league’s worst in that category. Boston will exhibit signs of noticeable fatigue at this point and crumble. 4-2 Bulls.

WEST CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio  vs. (3) Los Angeles

The Spurs can overtake LAL with little resistance. SAS routing LAL by a combined 45 points over their last two was no fluke. SAS understands how to guard LAL’s bigs, Kawhi’s defense on Kobe is top-notch, and the Lakers’ perimeter defense won’t cut it against the Spurs, as Parker and their three point shooting will absolutely wreak havoc. 4-2 Spurs.

EAST CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) Chicago vs. (2) Miami

Woo. Woo. There’s so much to talk about here, I don’t know where to begin. Maybe I won’t. Even with Chicago’s improved team passing, they doesn’t bring forth enough offense, and the talent of Miami shines. 4-2 Miami.

NBA 2011-12 FINALS

(2) Miami vs. (1) San Antonio

The league’s true best teams going at it. The Spurs are too good this year to lose to anyone but the Miami Heat and that’s for one reason, the very reason that they lose in a close game: they can only be beat if outclassed in terms of talent. The Spurs have experience, coaching, well-balanced attacks, bench play, and teamplay on their side. The Miami Heat have overwhelming talent and perimeter play on theirs, and that’s all they need. 4-3 Heat.

Wait … what’s that? A Hoopopotamus sighting! His mouth seems to be moving. What is he saying? What could it be?

“Many desire the ability to know what will happen in the 2012 NBA Playoffs. After wallowing in obscurity and silence during the cold winter, I arise out of snow to offer you the results of the playoffs.”

EAST 1st ROUND

(1) Chicago vs. (8) Philadelphia

The battle of Duke power forwards. Boozer vs. Brand. Neither makes the difference. Chicago grinds out a “hard to watch” series, 4-3.

(4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta

Is Paul Pierce OK?  He appears to be in pain?  Oh, that’s just the face he makes after a big shot.  Too many of these and too much Rondo leads to a painful loss for the Hawks.  Boston earns a matchup with Da Bulls, 4-3.

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando

The Magic tirelessly hoist 30 shots per game beyond the 3-point line.  Bill Simmons prematurely celebrates another example of the “Ewing Theory.” The magic runs out, and Indiana prevails.  Pacers, 4-2.

(2) Miami vs. (7) New York

Skip Bayless raves as Carmelo Anthony routinely puts on display his “clutch gene” in the 4th quarter.  Unfortunately, the display merely cuts the deficit from 14 point, to 7.  Heat win easily, 4-1.

WEST 1st ROUND

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah

Don’t worry, Spurs fans.  No Z-Bo heroics.  No Tony Allen haircuts.  Just a finely tuned San Antonio offense passing around the large bodies of the Utah Jazz.  San Antonio cruises, 4-0.

(4) Memphis vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin can’t seem to come down from the high of making the playoffs.  To his chagrin, this doesn’t mean he can dunk from the 3-point line.  Blake grows frustrated. Clippers grow cold.  Memphis moves to the Conference Semifinals for the second straight year, 4-2.

(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets

“QUEENSBRIDGE!!!”….is definitely not in the building for the first 6 games of this series.  Denver possesses the offensive explosion to exploit a slumping Laker defense, while the Manimal and JAVALE MCGEE do just enough to keep Pau and Bynum from winning the series on the boards.  Denver pulls the upset, 4-3.

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas

Oklahoma City exercises the demon of playoff past – an unstoppable Dirk Nowitzki.  It is not 2011 and the Mavericks don’t have the same mojo.  Russell Westbrook will punish the perimeter defense of Dallas.  The Thunder rolls forward, 4-2.

EAST 2nd ROUND

(1) Chicago vs. (4) Boston

Boston players find themselves easily distracted by the nostalgic sound of Coach Thibadeu’s voice barking on the sideline.  Meanwhile, the Bulls lock it up on defense and Rose finds his stride.  Too much rebounding and defense for Chicago spells doom for the original Big 3.  Chicago trudges through to the Conference Finals, 4-2.

(2) Miami vs. (3) Indiana

In anticipation of learning Carlos Boozer’s hair secrets, Lebron utterly dominates the up-and-coming Pacers.  Indiana will show promise, but the dominance of Wade and James will overwhelm the Pacers at the end of games.  Derrick Rose weeps, as he will not have the opportunity to live up to his “I will always remember this” promise to the Pacers.  Miami sets up the rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, 4-2.

WEST 2nd ROUND

(1) San Antonio vs. (4) Memphis

REMATCH! The Spurs sought revenge during the regular season and found it, winning the season series 4-0. Don’t be fooled, the Grizzlies possess the defense, size, and just enough scoring to defeat the Spurs.  Tim Duncan will shake his head in frustration as the dense low-post combination of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol does them in again.  As John Legend would say, “they keep doin’ it again!” Memphis, 4-3.

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (6) Denver

If I told you there would be a playoff series in which both playoffs teams would consistently score above 100 points, pace would be anti-slow, and Bodie from “The Wire” will flash athleticism only seen in “Space Jam,” is this something you would be interested in?  The Nuggets simply don’t have the answers on defense for the Oklahoma City three-headed monster of Westbrook, Durant, and clear-headed Harden.  The Thunder score their way to the Conference Finals, 4-2.

EAST CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) Chicago vs. (2) Miami

Don’t get it twisted; Miami loves to run them some isolation offense.  But if they’re going to lose, it’s not going to be to an isolation-based, drive and kick offense like that of the Rose-led Bulls.  While the Bulls need Rose, the ball unfortunately will not maintain its hot potato-like quality it has taken on over the final stretch of games.  Chicago loses, but Lebron tracks down a distraught Carlos Boozer just in time in order to exchange phone numbers.  The Bulls make it close, but the Heat win in 6.

WEST CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (4) Memphis

Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, Tony Allen cannot guard everyone.  The length and interior defense of OKC poses enough of a challenge for the Memphis big men to slow them down, putting too much pressure on their outside shooting.  Still, Thunder fans grow concerned as the offense falls into jump-shot mode at the end of games and standing around the perimeter becomes commonplace.  Scott Brooks gets questioned in media and rightfully exposed as a liability.  OKC gets over the hump and into the finals, 4-3.

NBA 2011-12 FINALS

(2) Miami vs. (2) Oklahoma City

Lebron forgets that he is playing in the NBA Finals.  Rather than being a negative, it actually allows him to continually attack the Thunder defense with disregard for the possibility of failure.  OKC plays good defense, but ultimately doesn’t possess the discipline to consistently cutoff driving lanes for D-Wade and LBJ.  Assertive Lebron shows up, Wade hits big shots, and Bosh grabs just enough careens to average an astonishing 8 rebounds a game.  Too much will, too much need, too much Wade and Lebron.  The Heat seals the deal.  Miami in 6.

-Hoopopotamus and KOTC wishing you a Merry Playoffs.

Picture this: You’re widely considered as a superstar of the National Basketball Association. Your name is Amare Stoudemire and you recently signed a breathtaking $100 million contract with a team that boasts the largest market in the basketball world, the New York Knicks. You even enter the MVP conversation in your first few months of play, seemingly carrying your team. And now, this:

Ouch.

How can this be? Is it really that a “superstar” – an athletic, versatile big man and a rarity at that – is making his team worse? In this case, it appears to be so; the above statistics suggest that the Knicks are worse off without him, primarily at the defensive end. I, for one, have criticized Amare’s spotty rebounding and defensive inability for years, so the defensive aspect did not surprise me. Still, I was convinced there was a little more to the Knicks’ problems.

The statistics above show us point per game (PPG) production and allowance. A good, but not great measure of offensive and defensive efficiency; turnovers, quality of shots taken and allowed, pace etc. is not accounted for in PPG. So let’s dig a little deeper. Here’s a look at various Knicks’ statistics with Amare and without him (Per Game Basis, statistics from Basketball-Reference):

Offensive Rating with Amare: 103.470
Offensive Rating without Amare: 108.611
Defensive Rating with Amare: 102.136
Defensive Rating without Amare: 100.626
Total Rebounds with Amare: 42.364
Total Rebounds without Amare: 41.526
Total Assists with Amare: 20.318
Total Assists without Amare: 19.00
Total FG% with Amare: 43.707%
Total FG% without Amare: 44.737%

The Knicks defense indeed has been worse with him in the lineup (+1.51 DRTG). But is that where their troubles really lie? Their offense takes a much more significant hit (-5.141 ORTG), actually. Note that with him they assist slightly more and rebound a little better, so it doesn’t appear that he’s hogging the ball or relaxing on his glass-related duties at their expense.^[27] So offensively, where are they being hurt? Their FG% is worse with him in the lineup, which gives us a little insight.

To conclude that the Knicks can’t connect on shots quite as well with Amare playing (for whatever reason) and that is the simple cause for their offense struggling – well, that’d probably be incorrect. If we recall, the disparity in ORTG with and without him is rather significant. This suggests that not only are they not getting as good looks at the basket (hence a slightly lower FG%), Amare isn’t doing other things that lead to a successful offense for his teammates. This could include making the correct passes, spacing the floor well, setting good screens, and/or perhaps taking shots within the offense. In other words, not only are they making a smaller percentage of their shots with him on the floor, they are making more mistakes and making shots of lesser worth. Factor in the fact that he also makes them worse defensively, and you’ve got a solid recipe for losing.

I must say: In considering the unique talents and personalities of the Knicks – in addition to the unfortunate injuries they have suffered this season – I just can’t help but root for them (Lin! TONY DOUGLAS!!! Oh, wait). I really hope they figure things out come playoff time.

So, Amare – that’s your cue. Get on that bench.

April 15, 2012 – It would be “Scrutiny Kings: Championship or Bust” pitted against “We Resurge with a New Identity Every 5 Seconds”. What new identity, what scrutiny would there be after the events of tonight? Only time would tell.

The Heat took the floor. Taking the hot seat was Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Udonis Haslem, and a feeble brachiosaurus at center, known by some as Chris Bosh.

Lebron made his way over to the scorers’ table. Soon after, the inexplicable happened: He proceeded to toss an inordinate amount of baby powder into the air. Questions raced through the minds of viewers: Where did he get that? Does it smell good? Does he really think there are baby bottoms up there? Then: nothing but white. White everywhere. The front row fans, completely caught off guard, got the absolute worst of it. For onlookers, it quickly became a horrible sight – as the powdered substance seeped into the fans’ eyes, tears poured down their face; the sound of hacking coughs pierced ears as they desperately attempted to inhale breathable air. Worst of all, perhaps, was Lebron’s somber demeanor; he seemed completely unaffected by his heinous doings. Was this planned? Did he merely want to share his abundance of powder? Regardless of intent, he remained unfazed by the happenings. Game time, he said.

Out came the Knicks. Leading them into battle was Baron Davis, Iman Shumpert, Landry Fields, Carmelo Anthony, and Tyson Chandler.

All eyes were on Carmelo. He started to tuck his shirt into his shorts in a powerful yet precise fashion, instantly ridding it of every last wrinkle. Why was he always doing this last minute, seconds before the tip off is about to occur? We can only guess: He just went to the bathroom. Every time.

And game time it was. Tyson’s time to shine. If he were to lose a jump ball to dinosaur, what would that say about him? And not only did he want to prove his jump ball competency; the day before, he had read on ESPN about him being a supposed offensive liability. How could they! He knew the truth: My jumper is wet. They don’t know nothin’, he thought.  He had big shooting plans for later. But for now, a successful jump ball would have to do.

The jump ball ensued. Knick ball.

Things happened. We jump to 5:39 remaining in the fourth quarter. 81-80, Miami was up by one. Carmelo dribbled up the court with a firey look in his eyes. He felt a toot coming, but this wasn’t the time – he worked to sustain his fearsome expression. Lebron stepped up in the form of a defensive crab-like creature. Lebron had great lateral movement and he knew it. Didn’t matter. Tyson Chandler slammed into him at an angle from behind. His screen was a foul like many of his are; enacting a full body thrust with the speed and purpose like prime Michael Jackson at a live concert, Tyson shaboomed Lebron and his crab-like presence, briefly making him a complete non-factor. Joel Anthony duly slid over to cover Carmelo Anthony as Lebron was taken out of the play. Melo put his head down and directed himself to the right side of the perimeter. As Lebron began to recover and Melo was double teamed, Melo realized he must take action. He continued dribbling forth, straight into a triple team. Yes! Exactly what he wanted. If he scored now, he would be immortal!

But at that moment, Junior Smith called for the ball at the top of the key. Damn, he thought. If I don’t pass, he’ll probably be a little sad. J.R. received a quick overhead pass. He faked the shot, jetted for the rim and passed his defender, only to toss it straight back to Melo. It was the weirdest give and go exchange ever – two players who you’d never expect to pass, passing to each other. Melo immediately hoisted up a shot. Swish. At that very moment, the whistle blew – “Three in the key”, the official said. Melo smiled. The score didn’t change, but the feeling in his heart did. The crisp sound of the ball passing through the net; the cheery roar of the people who don’t understand the rules; the little bit of extra down time that people could spend reflecting on his shotmake – it all resonated in his heart and he couldn’t help but have a big ‘ole grin. Carmelo Anthony: a happy go-lucky straight-up killer. The NBA’s smiliest assassin ever.

Two possessions later – Wade dribbled the ball up the court. A peppy and youthful, inexplicably precise defender in Iman Shumpert stepped up to stop him. But unlucky for him, Shump ran into an even more precise screen from Joel Anthony, one of the best 6’9½” offensively-limited, poor-rebounding, not-that-athletic-or-tall-but-somehow-still-a-good-shotblocking likely-pissed-off-by-the-fact-that-his-role-will-infinitely-remain-unchanged players of all-time. Wade was free. He danced around the lane like a bat out of hell; forcing switches, throwing in fakes and making Knick players’ hearts rapido, the stage was his to  himself. Tyson Chandler found himself isolated. Shit, Tyson thought. Isn’t that Dwyane Wade? He must be 7’0”! And his vertical leap, his ball-handling! They must be above average, at least! I bet he has a wet jumper too, just like mine. Wade could sense Tyson shaking in his boots. Tyson’s extended arm offered no resistance or distraction; everyone in the arena knew that any action of Tyson’s would be futile at this point. Wade calmly pulled up for the jumper. Nothing but rim and net.

The game was soon out of the Knicks’ hands. Miami won by an eventual score of 93-85.

There was baby powder, there were dirty screens, there were unexpected passes, and there were post-whistle shotmakes.

And on this night, there were champions: The Miami Heat.

Sometimes there are simple explanations for why certain outcomes arise in the world of sports. And sometimes, these simple truths escape our eyes – whether we are not paying attention, we are looking in the wrong place, or our eyes plainly do not want to see these truths.

If making an effort to consider a handful of truths from the 2010-11 playoffs, there is a simple explanation for why the Thunder reached the Western Conference finals last year: They lucked out a bit. Their key issues were not exploited until they played the 2011 Champions, the Dallas Mavericks. In the earlier rounds, the Thunder saw relatively good matchups – teams they handled in the regular season. Another reason is that not only were the San Antonio Spurs unhealthy, they ended up being matched with their kryptonite (Grizzlies). I firmly believe that had the Spurs ran into the Thunder in the second round, Oklahoma City would have crumbled, resembling a faint, far off “thunder” that couldn’t startle a feeble Mongolian infant of the Genghis era.

But the Thunder have improved since, right? Their record seems to suggest so. For people to consider this fact, to look at the Thunder’s placement last year, and assume it’ll be just as easy for them this time around – it’s understandable. Maybe they’ll get to the finals, or take home the trophy, even.

I’m here to say: That isn’t happening.  In my head, there are several reasons for this, but first we can sort through the reasons for why I might be potentially crazy:

Reason 1: As of the end of March in 2012, the Thunder have a tremendous offense

a) Oklahoma City is above average in 14 of 19 offensive categories – in many cases, at the top of the league.^[25]

b) Oklahoma City has the best offensive rating in the entire NBA, with a rating of 110.4 (110.4 points per 100 possessions according to Basketball-Reference). Three pointers, free throws, layups … no matter how they are carrying out their offense, it’s an undeniably successful one.

c) Oklahoma City leads the league in free throw attempts. Ranking second in FTM and first in FTA, this is clearly worthy of acknowledgement. Free throws are a vital component to playoff success.

Reason 2: Star power

When times get tough, having three stars in Durant, Westbrook, and Harden on your squad can be a beautiful thing. Star presence has been unequivocally tied with teams that go the distance.

Reason 3: Intimidating roster

With possible exception to the Chicago Bulls, the Thunder possess the league’s most talented roster. They have the best scorer in the league, one of the best point guards, the league’s best sixth man, a defensive player of the year candidate in Ibaka, a great perimeter defender in Sefolosha … the list goes on. Coach Brooks has lots of weapons to choose from, and they have plenty of versatility.

Reason 4: Presence of “set the tone” guys

Playoff games are often decided by a basket or two. In other words, little things matter. So forget efficiency numbers for a second and embrace this fact:  it’s important for teams to have particular players that give their teams a much needed push in crucial moments. Sometimes it’s the glue guy. The pump-you-up guy. The lead by example guy. Sometimes its Glen Davis’ and his inability to realize drool is pouring from his mouth. For Dallas, it was Dirk and Chandler, for Boston it was Garnett and Pierce, for LA it was Fisher and Bryant… and so on. The Thunder have a diverse, well-equipped (and talented) assembly of players.^[26] When their defense slacks, defensive-minded veterans in Perkins and Collins can set them straight. Meanwhile, Level-Headed Durant and Mista Coo Harden have the ability to take care of matters on the other end.

So, while it pained me, I mustered up a few reasons why OKC might succeed. Is my original claim seemingly crazy yet? Let’s move on to the reasons why OKC might not win a championship.

Reason 1: Oklahoma City is not only a poor passing team, they rely on isolations

Oklahoma City ranks 26th out of 30 teams in assists. What’s likely worse, though, is that they lead the league in number of isolations – 14.1% of their possessions, according to Sports Synergy. I don’t think I need to explain why that’s not ideal in a playoff setting, especially when overall intensity increases and defenses are more locked in. Their point guard, Westbrook, often receives criticism for his reluctance to move the ball around, and rightly so (does anyone still believe he’s a real point guard?). With those tendencies alive and kicking against elite defenses, Durant and friends can kiss that 110.4 ORTNG goodbye.

Reason 2: Thunder players are reluctant to operate in the post

"How do I post up?"

The Thunder’s three best players are all perimeter scorers. They have serviceable big men in Ibaka, Collison, and Perkins, but their priorities are primarily related to defense; the Thunder only engage in post-ups for 6.3% of their possessions – 7th worst in the league. Not having a post option in the playoffs is especially hurtful with a slower pace. Not only do I foresee discombobulating Thunder players once perimeter shots are no longer falling – in a seven games series, the Thunder’s opponents will understand how to play off of their bigs and take advantage of their perimeter-focused offense.

Reason 3: The Thunder’s defense is worse than their record suggests

At 13th out of 30 in terms of defensive efficiency, when compared with other contenders, the Thunder appear to be no defensive masters. It’s likely even worse than that though:

a) The Thunder are 2nd worst in the league at turning the ball over, and 6th worst at defending transition points. This, again, spells trouble against tight playoff defenses.

b) The Thunder are below average in 13 out of 19 defensive categories, and are top five in only one defensive category – defensive rebounds.

Reason 4: The existence of the Thunder’s troublesome dynamic – Westbrook/Durant

Last year, Westbrook’s shooting and decision making hurt his team. No one is saying it is bound to happen again a year later, but the possibility is definitely there. There can also be confusion – if not disagreement – as to whom should have the ball down the stretch.

Reason 5: Their daunting bench will come in less handy

One of Oklahoma City’s strongest attributes is their depth. However, as starters are given more minutes in the playoffs, other teams will be at less of a disadvantage.

Reason 6: Inferior coaching

"Do this and that!"

I cannot prove that Brooks is overrated as a coach, but I do believe the Thunder could be much improved with a better coach sitting at the helm. He doesn’t seem to identify and look to alleviate their problems very well. He permits silly mental mistakes. He also tends to makes questionable substitutions. What I do not appreciate, particularly, is his infatuation with isolation-based offenses. Altogether, I can see him being thoroughly outcoached once the offseason comes around.

Reason 7: Youth

There is a constant seen throughout the NBA since its conception: more experience allows for higher IQ. If you sometimes question the antics of the Thunder (shot selection, defensive decisions, silly turnovers), you aren’t alone. A large reason why I think they slightly overachieved last year – and won’t overachieve this year – is because they haven’t learned enough. They’re young, they’re inexperienced, and they haven’t shown the ability to make necessary adjustments. History agrees: if the Thunder were to win the title this year, they’d be the youngest team to win since the 1977 Portland Trailblazers.

Father time lightly chuckles at the title hopes of the frivolously-natured Thunder.

And I shall join him.

We’re back!

Billy Hoyle, Downtown Charlie Brown, The Pest, the Elusive Heisenburg, and Nostradamus all chip in for Volume 2 of our NBA Roundtable.

1. What is Linsanity’s true ceiling? Does he make you reconsider how the post-season will play out?

The Pest – Full Court Pest

As a player, the absolute max ceiling? All time point guard. He’s showing the same flashes I saw out of young Steve Nash and as so many points have shown it takes experience and luck. Lin has had them in reverse it seems and everything working out perfectly is very rare. A realistic ceiling is elite point guard which he has arguabley started making a case for already.

As an icon however, Lin truly does not have a ceiling. If they call it Linsanity in North America, I’m not sure there’s a menaingfull enough word in Chinese to replace it in Taiwan. The only thing I can compare it to is the death of Michael Jackson (or two pandas named Taun Taun and Yuan Yuan, but that’s another story). When he broke Linsanity was on every channel, all day, every day. News shows reported on Lin, and only Lin, for days. When I walked into my language center last week a group of women who never cared or played sports were gathered around a computer watching the ESPN play by play, cheering every time Lin’s name came up on the ticket. Lin committed a foul and they cheered. It didn’t matter. Even if it’s just Taiwan, he’s an icon.

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

Lin! I have always been a believer in the guy. As far as his potential, I think he has the capability to be a perennial all-star. He’s a good finisher, has good vision, a quick first step, a decent shot, and a knack for finding space and using screens effectively. He’s even got the tougher parts of the game down already – shot selection and passing is already top-notch. Aside from his lateral movement on defense, all he needs to improve is his consistency and turnover rate; over a few years, this will be no problem. Despite the greatness of Lin and New York’s newly acquired depth, though, I do not anticipate New York messing up the plans of Chicago or Miami.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

So far, the Linvasion has been entertaining, although I’m pretty sure even him mom is tired of seeing his picture plastered all over the papers. We’ve been waiting for quite a while for the Knickerbockers to become legit contenders. After crashing and burning in last year’s playoffs, we thought Carmelo and company would come out with a little more fire this season. They didn’t. Ironically, it took an undrafted, Asian-American point guard from the Ivy League to give them the kick in the ass they needed. If stranger things have happened in the NBA, I’m not sure what they are. I recently hosted a poll on my website asking readers how far Jeremy Lin could take the Knicks. Most answered one series playoff win at best. I’m inclined to agree with them. After Chicago and Miami, the East is wide open. So as long as the Knicks can grab a 3-4-5-6 seed, they should be fine. Anything lower and the Bulls and Heat will each their lunch.

Lin's Predecessor?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

I think a big thing helping Lin so far this year is that teams do not practice and their gameplanning is not anywhere close to what it would be in a normal season. The turn overs I feel are very telling and if the Knicks had any kind of point guard rotation Lin would not have such a long leash. When this all settles down and people quit comparing him to Nash he will probably fall into a Barea type role/ fringe starter.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

His true ceiling is pretty much impossible to predict. While I think the comparisons to Nash are mildly ridiculous at this point, there’s no question the kid can play. I think his ceiling is top 10 pg, which is still quite an achievement when you consider the number of quality points in the league.

As for the postseason, the Knicks remain what they always were. A dangerous first round opponent that is capable of beating anyone other than the Bulls and Heat, but who won’t make it past the second round as a result.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

I’ll be honest here. I don’t think Jeremy Lin will ever be deserving of an all-star spot. Nor do I think he’s the solution to poverty, selfishness and war. However, I do think he’ll be one of the better point guards in the league for a long time. As much as people want to believe that the scouting report is out on him, it isn’t. This past Sunday I watched Shawn Marion, one of the best defenders of the last decade, constantly allow Jeremy Lin to drive right and get off that mid-range jumper with ease. I’m giving him the ceiling of a smarter Brandon Jennings.

As far as the post-season goes, of course. The Knicks didn’t even look like a playoff team before Linsanity. Time will tell if the Knicks can gel and become a true contender but for now, they’re either one of the toughest first round outs the East has seen for a while or a good second round match up. At the end of the day though, the Heat and Bulls are the best of the bunch.

2. We’ve seen him play well with Amare… how will Melo and JR Smith affect the team?

The Pest – Full Court Pest

Melo will make them better. The heat Melo has received has been unwarranted. It’s not on him: his team had no point guard (on the floor) trying to run D’Antoni’s PG oriented system. If I you about playing Melo as a point forward and win you’d laugh. So why is he a ball stopping cancer when it’s the idea that didn’t work? Melo played great with Gerry McNamara (NCAA Title), AI (Melo Career high and AI career high efficiency), Chauncy Billups (within 2 games of the finals) and Ty Lawson (second best offence in the league). That’s as varied a list of PG’s you can find. Melo was right, “he can play with anyone”. Instead of forcing offence for TO’s Lin gets a legit go to scorer who can shoot, create or finish with anyone. Melo will open lanes for Lin when bigs are forced to guard him on the perimeter. In case anyone forgot, Melo is the best scorer in the league, and an absolute match up nightmare. It’s always good to have that guy on your team.

Swap these two

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

Melo is the league’s best scorer. Melo is not the league’s best team player. D’Antoni’s offense is predicated on point guard production and fast pace, and Melo’s tendencies take a little bit away from both of these. Fortunately, though, Melo may be in the midst of changing his tendencies. Seemingly taking recent criticism to heart against Atlanta – keen on playing within the offense and even buckling down defensively – he was clearly looking to take a new approach. The Knicks have a very versatile, potent team when Melo is in the right mind; he is not the best player for the Knicks, but with making the right changes, it can work. As far as JR Smith’s signing, he doesn’t help them improve much more than their depth. I believe that what the Knicks could use at this point is a defensive-minded team player (neither Melo nor Smith have proven to fit this role), as they already have enough guys to put up sufficient points. The very thought of an Iggy-Melo trade tingles my senses.

Talented, but are they leaders?

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

Pre-Lin, the Knicks clearly lacked any sort of leadership. ‘Melo didn’t provide it. Neither did Amare or Coach D’Antoni. Lin’s style of play is so involving that he may eventually emerge as the leader of that team, as long as there’s no Durant-Westbrook type of conflict or resentment. They should all co-exist peacefully, as long as they’re all getting their shots and the W’s keep piling up. If they don’t, I can easily see fingers being pointed. I definitely like the addition of JR Smith. He’s a guy that you really don’t have to run plays for and can just fit into a line-up, as witnessed by them winning their first game with him without having practiced with the team. We talked all season long about how the Knicks needed guard play. Well, now they have two, and that’s a hell of a lot better than none.

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

Even if Lin was on this team I am not a fan of a team with Melo, Amare and JR Smith. These are all players who shoot first, ask questions, and play defense, later. I don’t think any point would be able to make that team work.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

JR i don’t think is an issue at all. The guy is a sparkplug, and shoots when he gets the ball. If anything he will raise Lin’s assists as a shooter, but he won’t be taking the ball out of his hands.

Melo is a different story. I don’t think there’s any question he makes them better. I don’t think there’s a team in the league that wouldn’t improve by adding Melo. The question is how much better can he make them. Melo can be ball dominant, but we saw in his years playing with Iverson that he doesn’t necessarily need to. Melo is actually one of the best in the league at making a move quickly after catching the ball, so long as he is given free rein to score without having to worry about creating much for others. I think that will be the case, and once he and Lin develop some chemistry I think it will benefit the team noticeably. No question that it will hurt Lin’s numbers though.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Well, with a fourth quarter line up of Lin – Smith – Melo – Amare – Chandler you’ve got two guys that are alpha’s, one guy that wishes he was an alpha, and another guy who doesn’t yet know he’s an alpha. Four-fifth’s of that line up wants the ball in their hands. The other fifth is the only guy that’s really committed to defense. (The jury is still out on Lin) That generally spells trouble. However, if these guys can come together and make it work, they could be the most offensively explosive line-up that the league has seen for years. I don’t feel like there’s a lot of middle-ground here. This next two years essentially make or break Melo’s legacy, and this team is either going to turn in to a terrible experiment that makes you shake your head or must-watch television that still makes you shake your head… in awe.

3. Who were the biggest all-star snubs, if any? Who wins the “Gattling Award” for player who least deserves to make the AG?

The Pest – Full Court Pest

All Stars were mostly obvious. Slight snubs Josh Smith (down year though) and Ryan Anderson (not a true star, is he?) are overshadowed to me by the Rajon Rondo snub. He didn’t get picked, sure, but they picked Paul Pierce, and Rondo is clearly the best player on their team. Seagway to my Gattling award winner. Pierce has put up 18/5/5 and shot a poor 41%. Rondo is putting up 15/10/5 on 48% shooting, is the heart of their offence and a far better defensive contributor. Pierce is the Celtics 3′rd or 4′th best player depending on how you view Allen’s start to this season (blistering). People here picking Melo totally confuse me. When Melo was picked the Knicks and Celtics had almost the same records. Except Melo was putting up 24/6/4 on almost the same percentages as Pierce without the benefit of one of the best points in the league creating his easy baskets, not 4′th best player on his team.

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

I am positive that Paul Millsap deserves a spot on the West roster; both him and James Harden deserve a spot over Dirk Nowitzki (has anyone checked Harden’s TS% lately?). Both Aldridge and Love deserve Griffin’s starting spot more than he does (I happen to think Griffin is generally overrated). Josh Smith may be more worthy of a spot than Melo as well. All in all, though, I am very pleased with the results of this year’s selections.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

Whether it’s the NBA or MLB, I’m not a big believer in All-Star snubs. The fans get to vote, so technically, there are no real losers. Those voted into the game are the ones fans want to see. That being said, Carmelo Anthony probably shouldn’t have been voted an Eastern starter. He’s averaging near a career-low in scoring, field goal percentage and has missed ten games due to injury. But would I replace him with Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Chris Bosh or Paul Pierce? I’m not so sure. Same thing in the West. You could make the argument that Kevin Love (25ppg, 15 rpg) has better numbers than Blake Griffin (22ppg, 11 rpg). He does. But who would you rather watch play?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

My snubs and Gatlings go hand in hand. Milsap should be there instead of Dirk and Josh Smith should be there over Joe Johnson or Carmelo. All you have to do is look at the raw numbers to see that those 2 players are having better seasons than the three mentioned. Oh and just noticed that Rondo never made it (is a replacement now) and that is just silly.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

Either Pau or Paul Millsap. Both guys were having much better seasons than Dirk at the time the rosters were chosen. On a similar note, based solely on performance this year, there’s no question that Dirk was the least deserving all star. But since we can just give him the spot as the reigning FMVP, I’ll say Joe Johnson. He isn’t even the best guy on his own team, and there is no way he is better than Rondo. Now I know Rondo has since replaced him on the squad, but at the time of the voting he was probably the least deserving.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

I’ll be straightforward about this. Carmelo Anthony did not deserve to an all-star over Josh Smith. Smoove has been taking less three’s, taking it to the hole, playing insane defense, rebounding and most important of all, he’s been helping his team WIN (or Lin, whatever you want to call it now). Melo on the other hand, has been shooting the ball like it’s nobody’s business, and playing as abysmal defense as ever. When he was healthy, the Knicks looked like a loterry team. However, he was voted in and there isn’t much that can be done about it.

While I’d love to make a case for Rudy Gay or Al Jefferson in the West, and as much as I’d love to take Westbrook off the roster, I wouldn’t do it. Russ has really picked up his game in the past month, and his defense/scoring has been vital to Oklahoma’s success this year. He’s making a difference for his team, and it doesn’t really matter if I’m not a fan of the way he goes about it.

Oh, and the Gattling Award goes to none other than Carmelo Anthony.

4. Would you rather just watch the players have an arm wrestling tournament at mid-court or this year’s dunk contest? Do you think anyone from this field will be able to impress?

The Pest – Full Court Pest

I like the dunk contest, but can’t deny an arm wrestleing contest is probably more fun. What the NBA should add HORSE to the ASG. Not that bastardized Chuck/Kenny/EJ circle jerk joke they put up previously. Get rid of the refs. Let players dunk. For christ’s sake it’s the NBA. Stop the replays and interviewing players. Mic them up and let the talk playful trash to entertain us. Last year’s overblown anti-climatic Griffin coronation was a let down.He jumped over the hood of a car, not a car. People screaming “Bring On The Paegentry!” in to any ASG microphones should be shot on sight.

First to 11. Go.

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

I really think they need to introduce a small one-on-one tournament. Wade versus Kobe, Melo versus Bron, even CP3 versus Dwight … could anything be more entertaining? At least play “bump” or “tips”, considering that it wouldn’t hurt any of the players’ feelings. That is to say, I have very limited interest in this year’s dunk competition. Perhaps it will be nice to see Budinger’s 38.5 inch vertical on full display, but the combination of an influx in YouTube dunking fanatics and the results from the last few years just leads me to believe it won’t be very exciting.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

I’m one of the biggest all-star dunk homers you’ll ever meet. Sure, the contest has lost some of its luster over the years. I blame LeBron James. Winning the dunk contest was a rite of passage for NBA superstars. Dr. J did it, Michael did it, so did Dominique, Vince Carter and Kobe. Those before LeBron passed the torch, he passed on the option. His participation would have breathed new life into a contest that so desperately needed it. Personally, I don’t like that there are only four participants. It messes with the format. The contest was always better with eight players leaping out of the gym. Four doesn’t give us any drama. Re: this year’s contestants, I have confidence Jeremy Evans, Derrick Williams, Paul George and Chase Budinger will be able to provide us with a few ooh’s and aah’s, even though nobody’s ever heard of them. I also expect George to emerge victorious, but we all know the three-point contest is where it’s at for excitement these days.

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

I don’t see this contest being a bigger let down than Blake Griffin last year to be honest. At least we wont have to go through ridiculously stupid hype followed by nothing special. I couldn’t even name who is in the contest this year and i am fine with that. It should be somewhat entertaining, as long as the players stick to something they can do instead of getting 17 tries at it.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

I hate the dunk contest. The best dunkers are never the ones who win. Derozan had the best dunks last year and didn’t make the finals. I love Blake and hate Mcgee, but Mcgee had a more impressive contest by far, and Griffin’s car dunk was one of the most unintentionally funny things I’ve ever seen. If it were up to me they would pay TFB to come put on a dunk comp every year. That would be entertaining. As it stands, I’ll catch the highlights but I will not watch. Arm wrestling would be interesting, but really I would only care about who beat who, watching it would be kind of dull. That’s why I say they play volleyball. It just makes sense. It’s a court sport, it’s based highly on athleticism, and it would be hilarious. Other than the injury risks there’s no downside at all.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Everything in last year’s dunk contest was perfect, aside from the actual voting. There was not a single dunk that disappointed me, aside from the last one. I was going to defend this contest, but then I took a look at this year’s contestants: Derrick Williams, Paul George, Chase Budinger, Jeremy Evans. In other words, what the #*%&? As a fan of the dunk contest, it makes me cringe and I can only hope that I’m wrong when I say that this contest will resemble the contest of 2010. If anyone has a chance to stand out thought, it’s probably Paul George.

Will this man reemerge as All-Star MVP?

Instead of the arm wrestling match though, here’s what I propose. We take 20 of the NBA’s greatest retired players, and have a pick-up game. I don’t care how much it takes to pay these guys to play, just make it happen. There won’t be a person on the planet that would miss out on watching Jordan take it to the rack against Kareem, no matter how old these guys are. We’ll even bring back Steve Javie and Joe Tait, for old time sake.

5. What will the tightest end of year awards be? Who’s a lock, and who’s going to be in a footrace?

The Pest – Full Court Pest

My MIP pick, Marcin Gortat, can’t derail Linsanity. DPOY I do believe is is going to Dwight, but Iggy should compete. COY is a footrace between Doug Collins and Frank Vogul for how Indy and Philly made the leap. MVP, is locked up if you’re reasonable. I’ve never seen a more complete basketball player in my life then 2012 Lebron James. Highest PER of all time. All NBA D. His 27/8/7 on 55% and 41% from 3 is one of the best statlines of all time.

Lets take the way back machine to Oscar Robertsons 1962 triple double season. The average pace was 152 possessions a game compared to 91 now. Merely adjusting for pace, not talent, he is putting up 38/11/10 while shooting nearly 10% better. Lastly his all NBA D only commits 1.7 fouls. The eye test shows him jumping over people for ally oops, throwing beautiful half court passes dominating the league in a way we haven’t seen since Tim Duncan used completeness and discipline to do it in 2003. Durant and Paul just can’t compete.

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

MIP undoubtedly goes to Jeremy Lin. Sixth man of the year is definitely deserved by Harden (has anyone checked his TS% lately?), but Crawford and the Williams – Lou and Mo – will likely attract some attention. MVP is a toss-up between Durant, Lebron, and CP3, as they all have reasons for not winning it: Durant has Westbrook; CP3 doesn’t quite get the attention he deserves; Lebron is disliked and gets too much attention – attention regarding his comments about Cleveland rather than about the fact that he’s having the best statistical season of all-time. Defensive player of the year could actually go to Lebron or even Iggy (it appears as if he’s finally getting his due credit), provided Howard stays quiet and/or has less of a defensive impact if traded to another team. COY is between Collins or Popovich for obvious reasons, and ROY is a virtual tie between Rubio and Irving.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

I don’t think this year’s MVP award is a lock yet by any stretch. I’ve heard a lot of talk about LeBron taking it home lately, but why? He’s not even the best player on his team. That’s right. I said it. Kevin Durant is playing otherworldly, and even though he whines like a little girl, if you take Dwight Howard off the Orlando Magic, you have a ten to twelve-win team. What I’m really interested in seeing, if he keeps this up, is how many votes Jeremy Lin will get. It’s not quite as absurd as you think… or is it? I’m also intrigued by the Rookie of the Year award. Ricky Rubio is playing some outstanding ball but Kyrie Irving has managed to put a smile back on Dan Gilbert’s face. He’s leading his team in scoring AND shooting nearly 50% from the field. Not too bad for a rookie point guard.

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

I think the DPOY may be a little closer than most people think. The writers may be tired of Howard in general and all this trade stuff that they decide to reward someone else like Iggy this year. I don’t actually see any of the awards as being a runaway except for the most improved which is easily going to be Lin .Even if Lin regresses and finishes the season with stats like 11 and 4 there is no way he wont win that easily.

A lock for MVP?

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

At the moment, MIP is the biggest lock. Linsanity could become an average point guard for the rest of the year and he still wins it. MVP is also a lock. Sorry Durant, you’re one of my favourites, but there is no beating Lebron if he keeps playing like this. He’s an elite defender putting up the best PER of all time on the best team in the league. The voting should be unanimous. Eventually someone will challenge Dwight, but for now DPOY is a lock as well. Iguodala is getting some (deserved) love, but this is Dwight’s award to lose. Sixth man belongs to James Harden, I would put the season he’s having against any season since Manu last won it. Harden could have been an all star in my opinion.

So that leaves rookie of the year and coach of the year. ROY is between Irving and Rubio. I have no idea who will win. Coach of the year is always tricky. All I can say is that there will undoubtedly be multiple people in the running.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

The NBA’s most important awards, the MVP award and the DPOY award are pretty much locks at this point. Lebron James is having one of the best seasons of his life, staying away from the three point line, playing great defense and dominating like it’s 2009. “With no regard for human life” comes to mind. On the other side of the ball,let’s face it, Dwight Howard had the DPOY locked up before the season even started. And then we’ve got the sixth man of the year award. While there’s always tons of candidates for the award, and while the Nuggets might even have two (Harrington and Miller) I think this award goes to James Harden and it’s not particularly close. We’re talking about a guy who should be an all-star coming off the bench here.

Looking at the others, things start to get tougher. As far as Coach of the Year goes, I’d have to give it to Doug Collins, but you can make a great case for George Karl and Lionel Hollins as well. The Rookie of the Year trophy is a two-man race at this point, and while there’s a lot of basketball to be played, Kyrie Irving is looking like he’s going to edge out Ricky Rubio. This award is far from a lock though.

The toughest match-up, in my opinion, is the Most Improved Player award. I’m not ready to give it to Lin, partially because I don’t know if he actually improved or was finally given a chance, and also because it’s only been nine games. Guys like Greg Monroe, DMC and my favorite young player, Paul George make a strong case for themselves as well.

Fourth quarter, 1:51 left. Miami up by eight points. Chicago appears to have little hope.

The Bulls soon finish a nice driving play, and Miami follows it up with a quick turnover. Carlos Boozer converts on a fadeaway in the key in the next possession. It’s Miami’s turn to settle down and execute. After failing to find anything offensively, Lebron tries to bail his team out with an 18-foot jumpshot. Unsuccessful. Rose with the rebound. The Heat proceed to foul on a spectacular “and-1” play by Derrick Rose, and it’s at this very moment that everyone thinks: Wow, the Heat might actually lose this. Rose sinks the free throw. I can’t believe this, who’s going to win?! For just about everybody, uncertainty looms and the excitement is practically unbearable.

Everybody but me. I’m sick to death of these scenarios; I have begun to loathe their very existence. Not only have I been exposed to an excess amount of them recently, I already know what’s going to happen. In an instance such as this, the Miami Heat – a superstar-laden basketball team – will carry out the game’s most important play(s) in the most unwise way possible: by operating from an isolation. Dwyane Wade will sometimes be at the head of this, but it’s usually Lebron – he’ll either dribble the ball up the court or receive it from an inbounds. In both scenarios, everyone gets the heck out of the way.

Don’t expect any off-ball screens. Don’t expect any cross-court cuts. Don’t expect any passes. Just expect the ball-handler to take a dribble-up jumpshot, or once in a blue moon, to take it to the rack. Expect to see an inefficient offense that, in hope of a heroic bailout shot, fails most of the time.

But we must be honest – Miami doesn’t always do this. What about the instances where they make an effort to get the ball-handler some help? On January 29th against Chicago with 33 seconds left, they elected to have Bosh and Haslem attempt a double screen on the ball. It didn’t end well. When a good defensive team like Chicago has defenders who can fight through screens (Bosh and Haslem are not great screen setters anyway), the Heat are unable to get anything started. That is to say, not only is it hurting the Heat that they rely on isolations – the plays that they do run are dependent on progress off of the dribble, which quite frankly, is not the way to go:

Some will ask, “What do you suggest? Don’t you want your superstar taking the last shot?” Most of the time, I embrace this idea. However, there is a distinct difference in 1) running a play which puts the ball in a star’s hands and 2) plainly putting it in their hands and expecting them to produce. As long as a team isn’t merely scrambling, lots of activity with and without the ball is highly productive. ^[22] The Sixers provide us with a nice example:

I’m not just here to critique the Miami Heat and their reluctance to properly execute down the stretch – they receive plenty of scrutiny as it is (although it’s often for the wrong reasons). There are, in fact, many teams guilty of relying on isolation plays at the end of the game; the Knicks, Thunder, and Lakers exhibit similar tendencies. Contrarily, there are top-tier teams – such as Dallas and San Antonio – whom appear to embrace lots of screen setting and passing, too.

But no more bloobity blabbity. Let’s see if anything can tell us what plays do work. I took it upon myself to review hundreds of end-game scenarios (around 90 games in total) in order to properly explore tendencies and success rates amongst teams.^[23] Below is the data I compiled from 300 endgame situations – how many passes and screens occurred (also combinations of the two), the frequency of each “play” league-wide, and their respective success rates:

Endgame Isolation Data All3

So does lots of activity equate to more success in endgame situations? The data definitely suggests it does. Keeping in mind that a sample size of 300 is far from perfect, here’s what the data tells us:^[24]

- No screens and no passes (isolation) equates to a success rate of about 25%
- A combination of screens and passes (“combo” subcategories) sees success rates between 40% and 60%
- Lots of passing and no screening is not necessarily productive
- Teams embrace isolation plays far more than combination plays of 4, 5, or 6 actions, despite the differential in success rate

This makes sense. Defenses will zone in on players who tend to hog the ball and they’ll be forced into taking a tough shot. Lots of passing and no screening likely indicates that a team can’t get anything started or has no go-to player. Furthermore, a combination of screening and passing means the defense is on their heels with reacting and switching, which leads to a higher conversion rate for the offense.

Let’s glance at more extensive research for a handful of teams (20 plays in total for each team) to shed light on their habits as units:

Iso Excel

Interestingly, despite their talent at the guard positions, Utah didn’t run a single play that consisted of zero passes and zero screens. They also didn’t even run any plays with just one screen, which certainly signifies an appreciation of activity. Compare this to Miami, for instance, who had seven plays with zero passes and screens (success rate of 1/7) and three plays with just one screen (2/3), or to Oklahoma City who had seven (1/7) and four (2/4), respectively.

Can we get away from this?

In review of over 300 endgame scenarios from at least 90 down-to-the-wire games, it is clear that an obsession with isolations is present. It is also apparent that this doesn’t lead to good late game production. Why, then, is this infatuation there? It’s likely difficult to pinpoint a singular cause, but Michael Jordan’s individual dominance in the past has something to do with it. As he continued to dominate, this “heroic” style of play started to catch on with teams boasting the league’s most talented players. Larry Bird recently stated in an interview, “With Michael it was different…”; in regards to isolation plays that they started running for Bird towards the end of his career: “I thought  it was bad basketball.” Absolutely.

So we can likely blame coaches for trusting their stars to produce single-handedly, but players certainly have a role in the development of this phenomenon as well. After all, who doesn’t want to be a hero? If talented teams like Miami continue to struggle in these endgame instances, though, perhaps we will finally see proper reactions – teams making appropriate changes to their strategies.

One can hope.

Five Need-To-Knows

1) The referees of today condone traveling (as long as it looks good)

We can’t expect referees to catch every single thing that goes down on a basketball court. Missed calls happen, and fans, players, and coaches are rightful in expressing their complaints from time to time. But in today’s NBA, there’s something peculiar about a specific no-call - one that seems to slip past the officials each and every time. So I must ask: am I really that observant, or is the NBA knowingly permitting this violation?

This specific violation occurs when a player transitions from a run to a pivoted spin to a shot, dunk, or jumping pass. We most often see run, spin, dunk - this is generally done by the league’s most athletically gifted players. Due to their running speed, though, in the midst of this process their pivot foot slides; in some cases it is picked up and put down in a completely different spot. The movement of a pivot foot is, without a doubt, a traveling violation.  Here are few of your favorite players in violation – er, action:

If someone informed me that the league was knowingly permitting such types of movement for the purpose of better entertainment, I suppose I wouldn’t be completely surprised. But I still don’t agree it with it one bit. If we’re to dismiss the very rules that the game is based upon, there is no limit to the degree the game will devolve in the future.

2) The silliest rule in sports is present in today’s NBA

This “shooting foul” rule has troubled me for years and years. Say a player shoots a jumpshot. There’s contact after the release, often on the arm or the hand. The referees proceed to award the shooter… with foul shots? The shot has already occurred, yet the player is supposedly in an “act of shooting”. A bit counter-intuitive, isn’t it?

3) The NBA currently employs the two all-time best ball handlers for their size

Tyreke Evans and Jamal Crawford. I know, it’s not what you were expecting.

4) Despite its inherent value, proper screening is done far too infrequently

I recently attempted to conduct a study on the impact of good screen setting, but it was an impossible task. This was simply because roughly 70% of the “screens” people were setting weren’t really screens at all – just guys running through the motions. Maybe they were tired due to the compressed schedule, but if you ask me, that shouldn’t excuse their failure to set good, hard screens where contact is made with the defender. The pick-and-roll is absolutely the best play in basketball, and the league’s most talented big men are often half-assing it. If Kevin Garnett (the elderly version) gets a 9/10 for screen setting, I’d give Blake Griffin about a 4 and Chris Bosh about a 0.5.

5) Carlos Boozer spends 63.2% of his time on the court by clapping, air-sitting, or airsit-clapping

Yes.

One Simple Proposition

Increase the penalty for reoccurring violations

Have you ever felt that games are carrying on way too long when a team intentionally fouls at the end of games? This usually occurs when Team A has slight chance of coming back if they can connect on a couple miracles, hoping team B will miss their free throws at a detrimental rate. The repetitive actions of foul, quick three, foul, quick three can sometimes lead to the remaining 43.1 seconds taking a full 20 minutes to play out.

Solution: A gradual increase in awarded foul shots. Currently, a rule is in place to give Team A bonus free throws once Team B has reached five team fouls, right? So why not be awarded three free throws once ten team fouls has been reached? It eliminates excessive repetition to prolong the inevitable and simultaneously penalizes for repeated violations.

Three Common Misconceptions Lasting Into 2012

Common misconception #1: It is always better to box out

It’s not. Don’t get me wrong – boxing out correctly is one of basketball’s most crucial fundamentals. Nine times out of ten, the action of boxing out is going to be advantageous for your team. But taking the time to find your man and concentrate on bodying him can sometimes work against you; the most elite rebounders have a clear understanding of this. Depending on players’ positions relative to the ball, it can be more important to focus on the trajectory of the ball in order to better react to the bounce.

Common Misconception #2:  A player and his team have total control of their destiny

Most of us are aware that several factors play into which teams win and lose, particularly in playoff settings. However, as of late, it appears that many of these factors are being overlooked. Fans will go as far as blaming a single individual for an entire season’s results. How fair is this, exactly? Other than talent and skill level, let’s review some of what plays into the possibility of one team’s successes:

·    Familiarity with each team’s philosophy and personnel (all teams, stages)
·    Seeding of playoff teams
·    Playoff teams’ injuries (degree, total, and timing in season)
·    Previous matchups, duration, and outcomes (all teams, stages)
·    Coach’s decisions (all teams, stages)
·    Roster depth (all teams, stages)
·    Teammates’ familiarity with one another (all teams, stages)
·    Collective playoff experience amongst teammates (all teams, stages)
·    Collective playoff experience amongst opponents (all teams, stages)
·    Ability to compensate for opponent’s style and abilities (all teams, stages)
·    Ability to properly execute towards end of close games (all teams, stages)
·    Existence or nonexistence of star players (all teams, stages)
·    Health of star players (all teams, stages)
·    Occurrence of random “table-turning” events (all teams, stages)
·    Home court advantage (all teams, stages)

The list goes on. There are, of course, plenty of other factors of a more discrete nature. A great example: Scorecasting authors Tobias Moskowitz and Jon Wertheim explain that due to loss aversion, certain coaches will pull out their stars earlier than they should in order to avoid blame. The authors proceed to estimate that leaving a superstar with five fouls on the floor increases chances of winning by a full twelve percent. How many times have teams lost key games because their coach was being too careful? Likely more than we had thought. One can only estimate the vast number of factors at play in NBA basketball that are of a similar nature.

Not the most fortunate

The reality is, playoff outcomes are hardly predictable. If the 2011 Miami Heat didn’t face a zone by Dallas – a defense their personnel was unable to dissect – would they have won? If Ron Artest hadn’t caught Kobe’s airball and converted a game winner, the Lakers may not have beaten the 2010 Suns, either. The same applies to Kendrick Perkins’ injury and the Celtics loss in the same year. We mustn’t forget everything that goes into the game of basketball, as it’s not all about a specific star’s “success” or “failure” – sometimes things are just out of a player’s or team’s hands.

Common Misconception #3: PER is perfect indicator of player production

Yesterday was the same as any other day: I woke up, rinsed my mouth, and immediately did a Basketball-Reference Player Comparison between Jamaal Magloire and DJ Mbenga. Following that delightful refresher, I somehow found my way to a comparison between Larry Legend and Sir Charles. I realized that something just didn’t seem right – particularly with the fact that Bird’s career PER (Player Efficiency Rating) was inferior to Barkley’s. Their statistics seemed to hint at the very problem with how PER is calculated.^[21] First, a look:

Larry Bird——-: 24.3 PPG, 6.3 AST, 10.0 TRB(2.0 ORB), 0.8 BLK, 1.7 STL, 0.7 3PT, 3.1 TOV, 2.5 PF, 38.4 MP = 23.5 PER on .564 TS%

Charles Barkley: 22.1 PPG, 3.9 AST, 11.7 TRB(4.0 ORB), 0.8 BLK, 1.5 STL, 0.5 3PT, 3.1 TOV, 3.1 PF, 36.7 MP = 24.6 PER on .612 TS%

Bird scored more points (+2.2 PPG), assisted much more (+2.4 AST/G), rebounded on the defensive end a little better (+0.3 DREB/G), fouled less (-0.6 PF/36 MIN), turned the ball over a little less (-0.2 TOV/36 MIN), made more three pointers (+0.2/36 MIN), and stole the ball more (+0.2 STL/G)…but we must also consider that he played a tiny bit more, his teams consisted of a 4% faster pace (roughly) and he shot the ball less efficiently. To be fair, we can only speculate as to who “deserves” a higher PER without fully going into the formula, its variables, and the weight of the values.

One thing we can be more sure of, though, is John Hollinger’s (creator of PER) apparent tendency to overvalue rebounds – namely offensive ones. Such might explain the very reason why great rebounders like Barkley tend to best the most efficient of scorers in a statistical sense. Below are the values that John Hollinger (and everyone else)^[22] assigns to assists as opposed to offensive rebounds:

Hollinger: Assist: 0.79 PTS
Hollinger: OREB:0.85 PTS

Everyone else: AST:  1.02875 PTS
Everyone else: ORB:0.89875 PTS

A noticeable difference – one that would definitely affect the outcome of a formula. If Mr. Hollinger would reassign his values for rebounds and assists, PER might just be as perfect as it can get; ideally we will be able to see players like Bird and Barkley on a more even scale. Until then, I…will continue to use PER constantly. Okay fine, it’s still my favorite statistic in the world.

1. Who are the legit contenders this season for an NBA title and who do you have in the finals?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

I have the Heat and the Thunder in the finals with the Heat winning. I think Westbrook will try and prove a point which will cost his team and get him traded in the offseason. As far as contenders, obviously Miami, OKC, Indiana, LAL, and CHI. Those really are the only teams I see contending this year.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

Of the three major sports leagues, picking chalk to win a title is usually safest in the NBA.  Nobody could have predicted that the Cardinals or Packers would have finished atop their respective leagues last year and for a change, nobody thought the Dallas Mavericks would be raising last year’s O’Brien Trophy either, which leads me to believe things will return to normalcy in 2012.  Miami has struggled early but I just think that team is too talented not to be there in the end.  And even though they have a new head coach, the Lakers are also as talented as any team in the league.  While off to ferocious starts, I still see the potential number one seeds, Oklahoma City and Chicago, as too inexperienced… and experience wins championships in this league.  We’ve been waiting a while now for Kobe to square off against LeBron in a seven-game series.  Why not now is what I’m thinking.  Can you imagine the television ratings?  After a summer of discontent, that’d be David Stern’s wet dream.  He and Billy Hunter might actually smoke a peace pipe.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

Miami- Made the finals last year and are even more dominant in this early season. Can’t count out a team with that much talent, and barring injuries to one of their main guys should make a deep playoff run.

Chicago- Offense looks a little less stagnant, and their defense is as terrific as ever. Will still have problems with Miami but look to be in good shape.

Oklahoma City- Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Collison, Perkins, Sefolosha, Cook, Maynor. This team has so much talent to not be considered as contenders.
Dallas- Despite losing Chandler/Barea I’m not going to count them out just yet. Their offense will be fine and Haywood is a suitable center.

Los Angeles- …. Lakers. Now even I’m not sold on this pick. However they have to be in the discussion with the way their big 3 of Kobe/Gasol/Bynum have been playing.

Finals: Miami vs OKC. Chicago didn’t make any moves that address how badly Miami dismantled them last year, and Miami just keeps looking better. OKC was primed to make the finals last year before they ran into Dallas playing the best basketball of their lives. So long as the Westbrook situation doesn’t blow up they should be playing for it all in June. Miami wins though.

On their way to contention?

Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

I’ve got Miami and Chicago in the East, and Boston as a dark horse contender. I think they’re being smart this year and taking it slow. I still fully believe that Boston is not a team anyone is going to want to face in the playoffs. Oh, and if Philly keeps up with what they’re doing right now, it’s going to be hard to ignore them as contenders.
The West is a bit more tough with teams like Portland and Denver. As far as sure-fire contenders go, I’m going with Oklahoma, and both Los Angeles teams. The thing about the West is that each of these teams have glaring weakness. No one knows what’s going on in Russell Westbrook’s or Vinny Del Negro’s head. The Lakers looked bad last year in the playoffs and now they lost Lamar. I never thought I’d say this, but I think Mike Brown may have actually rejuvenated the Lakers the way that Germany rejuvenated Kobe. And yes, I am completely ignoring last years champs.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

The Thunder, Clippers and Blazers in the West. Miami and Chicago in the East. I have no faith in anyone else’s medicine without funny things happening to alter the outcomes. I won’t deny a puncher’s chance at a lucky run by Memphis, Boston, LAL  or even San Antonio (and in that order) to make some noise, anything can and does happen in the playoffs, but I don’t think anyone else has the horses to stay in that race with the first six mentioned above. That means you Chandlerless Dallas.

Billy Hoyle – KeeperOfTheCourt.com

East: Heat, Bulls. West: Thunder, Clippers, Blazers. I currently have the Blazers and Heat in the finals. CP3 will courageously lead his teammates into battle, but their defensive woes and inexperience spell trouble. For the Bulls and Thunder, while talented, I expect them both to implode – this is mostly due to the type of offense they require from their point guards. No one can stop the Heat but themselves; their new additions and ever-so-ripe defense appear to put them above the league. The Blazers, looking surprisingly sharp following their adoption of a faster pace, appear to be a matchup nightmare for everyone.

2. What is going to be the biggest surprise of this season?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

Kobe wins his second MVP. Now stay with me, This may be Kobe’s last super productive season and i think they will want to honour the “old breed” before having to give MVPs to Durant, another to Rose. Howard will never win an MVP it seems and everyone hates Lebron so…. It is looking like he is going to have a fantastic year and i am sure his numbers will level off a little. I could see a 27/5.5/5.5 season out of him and if his shooting improves to 47% range, says all the right things and the Lakers win the Pacific and get a top 3 seed in the West. It very well could happen, you would have to overlook all the bad he does, but worse things have happened in MVP voting.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

Your average basketball fan knew which teams would be good and bad in 2012, however, I don’t think anybody could have predicted the 76ers would have gotten off to such a torrid start.  Aside from Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand, can you name another one of their starters?  I didn’t think so.  They currently have seven players scoring in double digits and rank atop the league in both points scored and allowed.  That’s a pretty good combination.  I guess Doug Collins can coach after all, huh?  I’m just happy I don’t have to listen to him on TNT anymore.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

Would a first round exit for the Knicks count? If not I’ll go with the Cavs making the playoffs. They are in that 8th spot now and Irving is starting to look more comfortable.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

The Cleveland Cavaliers. In the playoffs. Upsetting the Miami Heat. Okay, not the last part, but wouldn’t that be hilarious? Dan Gilbert got ridiculed a bit last year for drafting Tristan Thompson, but the Canadian is showing people that he can play! Kyrie Irving is also panning out well, putting up 17 points and 5 assists in just over 27 minutes a game so far. Right now, most people think the Cavs are just a team with potential but I could definitely see them making a run for the 7th – 8th seed.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

After years of doubt, ridicule, disrespect and general idiocy by national journalists David Kahn is going to take home the Executive Of The Year Award. Unlike Mark Warkentien who won because his injured players stopped being injured in 2009, David Kahn will deserve it. He created a plan and stuck to it for 2 years while the media made him a laughing stock. He acquired and retained several gifted young athletic players most of the league had given up on and told them he believed in them. Said he was going to deliver the next truly great point guard capable of making them stars. They bought in. He told them he’d use their talent to create a team a point guard could not refuse. He knew it’s the only way to retain a true star in a small market. Except that star told him not to draft him and refused to come over the ocean. People said he was over-rated, a bust in the making and would never play a game for the team.

David Kahn is The Honey Badger. He just doesn’t give a shit. He believed Rubio was what he thought he was. He believed he could make him come. Honey Badger takes what he wants. He drafted him and built that team anyway. Ricky Rubio couldn’t refuse. Ricky Rubio looks happy. Ricky Rubio looks like the Realio Dealio. He still packed on more talent like JJ Barrea on an amazing contract. He hired a perfect fit top flight coach who got the most out of the same Webber who made fun of him above. The T-wolves are the most talented young team in the league, loaded with assets and picks and David Kahn looks like the most fearless GM in sports.

Billy Hoyle – KeeperOfTheCourt.com

Besides Jeremy Lin scoring 50 points, I’d have to go with the Philadelphia 76ers’ success. Doug Collins is one of the best basketball minds ever, and I firmly believe he has a way to get through to his young and talented roster. They’re already starting the year off strongly by showing a better understanding of their roles and looking very potent defensively.

3. What is the biggest potential trade of this season?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

The obvious answer would be Dwight Howard. I am going to go a different direction. I see STAT getting traded this year. New York is just bad, They are a bunch of ISO and beat your man players trying to act like a team. I dont know where he goes, or what he is traded for but I could see him getting traded. Maybe for Josh Smith who is on his last legs in Atlanta, They could reach and go after Howard. I am sure they have many options, out of Melo and STAT you keep Melo and I think that is how it goes.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

I’ve been trying to come up with a name other than Dwight Howard to put in this category but I just couldn’t do it.  To pretend Dwight-gate isn’t the biggest trade story in the NBA is like saying the country has a slight unemployment problem and refusing to talk about it.  Not only does Orlando’s future hang in the balance with this deal, so does the future of the team he’s traded to.  Whether it’s Chicago, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Golden State, New York or some surprise team we haven’t heard about yet, those teams all stand to get substantially better, or worse, depending on what they give up to get him.  Of course, Dwight will likely still be in a Magic uniform come All-Star weekend where I’m sure he’ll be hosting VIP party after VIP party.  Heck, maybe he’ll have enough fun that weekend to decide he wants to stay in Orlando, and all this trade talk will be for not.  Most of us, however, think it’s a little too late for that.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

Other than the obvious Dwight Howard trade bonanza, something involving Steve Nash is my hope. Watching him on the Suns bums me out. I think Indiana needs to take a look at making a move for him. Pairing Nash with Granger/West/Hibbert/Hansbrough would be best for all involved. Collison can resume his New Orleans role as a sparkplug off the bench. Now to be fair I’m not sure who Indiana would have to give up, but if they keep most of their core intact and acquire Nash I would pick them to beat anyone other than Miami or Chicago in the Eastern Playoffs.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Russell Westbrook for Deron Williams. It needs to happen. This is, of course, if the other biggest potential trade (Dwight Howard) doesn’t pan out for New Jersey. With Lopez on the sidelines the Nets have nothing to offer Orlando, and their abysmal record isn’t going to keep Deron happy, or attract Howard. For Oklahoma, they’ll finally have a pass first PG who will look for Durant first but still be able to produce for himself.
While this may sound far-fetched, the biggest long-term winner from a trade like this could be Russell Westbrook. I don’t like the way he plays, but that’s right now. He’s the type of guy that needs to spend some time on a team that he can call his own, without the pressure that contending in OKC next to Durant brings. Give him a season or two playing his way through his mistakes, and I really think he could become a guy I like. Until then though, I’ll still resort to calling him Westbrick.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

If Dwight is traded it impacts the entire league, but that is obvious. What’s more interesting is who’s really in the market to land him and make themselves an instant contender. With the obligatory change/third team that can make any trade happen, trading Chris Bosh, Amare/Chandler has got to be things these teams are considering. They’re good with what they have but they’re amazing with Dwight. What if the Wolves offer a package of Williams, Randolph, picks and change for Dwight? It’s not a comfortable time to be really good in the NBA. My real pick: what the Clippers do with the glut of talent in the swing positions. One should be coming and the potential for them to be league dominating good is totally there.

Short term?

Billy Hoyle – KeeperOfTheCourt.com

A Deron Williams trade could actually be more impactful than a Dwight Howard one, provided that Dwight goes to LA and fills in for Bynum…who might actually be a little better than him. If these specific events do not occur, this season is all about wherever Dwight Howard goes. I would really like to see him pair up with Deron Williams in New Jersey, simultaneously reviving Williams’ motivation and restoring the future of the franchise. If he ends up in Chicago – despite a loss of Noah or Deng – that team’s defense is going to be disgusting. If that happens, Thibbs needs to play Gibson over Boozer, as they’d have the potential to break all-time defensive records… that’s another matter though. Actually, Gibson should always play over Boozer. Have I mentioned that Carlos Boozer is bad at basketball?

4. Are the Clippers for real as the team to beat in the league? In the West?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

No and No. Paul is fantastic and you can see the chemistry building but they still have some major flaws. First off their back-up bigs consist of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans. Let that sink in for a bit. After that they have glaring holes in their interior defense. It consists of Blake Griffin who is not known as a good defender and The 9 million dollar man Deandre Jordan. Jordan is a fantastic shot blocker who fouls too much and looks kind of lost out there at times. With Chauncey and Paul at the Guard spots and Butler playing the 3, they have good wing defense but with the way the rules are, it all depends on Interior Defense and that is a spot they lack. They have some good trade chips so I expect a trade out of them to get a backup 4/5 player and maybe they can be that team.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

I don’t think there’s any doubt the Clippers are a playoff contender.  They’ve already beaten the Heat AND the Lakers this season, the two teams I picked to be in the Finals.  But this team has barely logged any minutes playing together.  Chris Paul will get some nods for this year’s MVP as most of us thought he would, but I still think they’re a strong guard and some depth away from being serious contenders.   Still though, no team, particularly a poor defensive one, wants to travel to Lob City.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

I didn’t even list them as a contender, so I’m going to say no. They haven’t shown any signs of real dominance to me anywhere other than highlight reels. Like I said, I love Paul and Blake, but they need a better coach and more time together. For next year they might be the team to beat in the West, unless OKC pulls it all together.

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Absolutely not. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are a formidable duo right now, but as a bitter Bulls fan I can say with confidence that VDN can and will find a way to screw it up this season. Despite last night’s game I still think the Lakers are a small step ahead of them, and I’d probably take OKC in a seven-game series as well. On the other hand, if the Clippers manage to turn their defense and rebounding around this season, I might change my mind.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

The Clippers are far from the perfect team and have their flaws. I admittedly picked them to win the title in Sportschump’s NBA Pick’em Contest at least partially to root for them. But every time I try to speculate on how they stack up against other teams I either end up way in their favor or it’s a wash. Every team in the West is flawed. I don’t trust Russell Westbrook at all. Portland is probably best suited and are depending on 37 and 38 year olds at the 5. I think the Lakers and Mavs are done with this conversation. So why not? The Clippers have superior players at the 1, 4 and 5 to every contender in the league and a ton of depth at the 2 and 3. Sorry, but I just don’t believe in Miami’s ability to match up. Not a problem in Chi-Town however their woeful offensive execution makes me lean wash on them too. LAC is going to be WAY better come playoff time then now so I’m picking Clippers.

Billy Hoyle – KeeperOfTheCourt.com

The Clippers are definitely not the team to beat in the league – that team remains the Miami Heat provided their roster remains healthy and intact. If the Heat had made a few more free throws and ran offenses down the stretch the other night, they’d have handled the Clippers just fine. If we’re talking about the West, the Clippers are definitely towards the top, but the Thunder remain the team to beat.

5. After two weeks which team had the best off-season, who had the worst?

Downtown Charlie Brown – Full Court Pest

I want to give props to the Clippers and Pacers for their off-seasons but I feel Minnesota had the best off season. Not only did they bring in 2 rookies who could be a cornerstone of the franchise, they brought in a rookie who is fantastic to watch. The reason I put Minnesota first is not due to a turn-around in their record, it still is quite poor at 3-7, it has to do with the impact on the fans. Minnesota, thanks to Rubio, is a can’t miss game when it is on TV and fans (myself included) are dying to try and get a Minnesota game on TV. Minnesota is 5th in overall attendance this year after being 24th last year. Rubio has truly made the game fun for the fans in Minnesota and it shows with ticket sales.

The worst off season is tricky. Besides New York’s absolutely moronic contract for Tyson Chandler, I really think the Lakers had the worst off season just due to the trade that was rescinded. The team is playing good but that failed trade angered Lamar Odom who they had to give up for nothing, Pau probably has resentment over the trade and Bynum has shown he can be the go to big guy on a team which is something he may not have the chance to with Pau and Kobe with him as opposed to Paul and Kobe. Getting Chris Paul would have made the Lakers contenders for the title, Troy Murphy could have started alongside Bynum and they would have been fine, but now it looks like they will contend for the division title and not much else as they are largely the same team as last year and any improvements in Bynum are offset by losing Odom.

Sports Chump – SportsChump.net

If it weren’t for Tim Tebow, the Clippers are all anybody would be talking about this winter.  It’s hard not to find Blake Griffin’s face on every third television commercial and I don’t think there’s any question they made the off-season’s biggest splash by landing Chris Paul.  They’ve gone from a team that nobody watches to must see TV.  I’d say the worst off-season would have to go to the Washington Wizards who did absolutely nothing to improve their team.  Either them or the Sacramento Kings, who appear to be dead team walking.  The Maloof’s matching Louis Vuitton suitcases are as good as packed, meaning we can all stop making fun of Seattle as the only city who let a team get away.  Nobody knows for sure whether the Kings will move to Anaheim.  Now that there are two GOOD teams in L.A., there might not be as much interest for a third one in SoCal, meaning Kings’ fans might ironically have Chris Paul to thank for staying put.  My honorable mention for a team with the worst off-season has to go with the New Orleans Hornets, who not only lost the face of their franchise, they were reminded that they’re essentially nothing more than a league-owned farm team waiting to disband.

The Elusive Heisenberg  – Full Court Pest

Best offseason I still think goes to the Clips. They got Billups for dirt cheap, acquired a top 5 player in Paul, and retained DeAndre Jordan. While they aren’t on pace for 1st in the West or anything their offseason moves have panned out for the most part. If they can trade Williams/Billups for a legitimate shooting guard they will be in great shape.
Worst is tough. Lakers lost Odom (and their Bynum injury insurance) for essentially nothing in return, and one of their players changed his name to Metta World Peace. With that said, they are still potential contenders, give credit to Mike Brown for renewed focus on defense. Phil Jackson was an all time great, but sometimes teams just need a change of scenery, and it’s looking good for the Lakers so far.
So I’m going to have to say Dallas. Even though I listed them as contenders, they really won’t be the same team without Chandler and Barea, and Odom looks lost out there. They could prove me wrong but I really don’t like what they did (although their hand was sort of forced, they can’t pay everybody).

The Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

I’ve got the two teams from LA here again. I have to give the Clippers the best off-season. They got one of the three biggest potential prizes in Chris Paul, filled that small forward gap for a slightly over-paid Caron Butler and added Reggie Evans for cheap, to fill a back-up role they were desperate to fill. They stole Billups for less than four million dollars and retained DJ who is out to prove that he is worth his contract.

On the other side of Hollywood live the Los Angeles Lakers though. After a disappointing defeat in last year’s playoffs, Lakers fans put their hopes in to the idea of getting Chris Paul, Dwight Howard or maybe even both. Before the season was set to start, this looked very possible. All of this was of course, before “basketball reasons” happened. After David Stern vetoed the trade, the Lakers went from possibly having the best off-season to the worst. They had to give away Lamar Odom because he was unhappy, but they just decided to give him to the team that swept them, which was just mind-boggling to me. While I don’t think they’re contenders for a championship, they’re contenders for Dwight and Deron, and Odom could be a valuable asset to those trades. On top of all of that, no more Phil Jackson, and Gasol isn’t likely to be in high spirits either.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

It’s between Portland and Minny. Portland added Gerald Wallace who fits like a pod around peas (I know this was a late season add, but it’s a gimme), got way younger at the point by flipping Miller for Felton and added another pea pod player in Crawford who ‘will’ hit Ball Swingin Shots in the playoffs for them. Ask yourself this: how many teams in history have actually managed to get much better after losing their best player in his prime for nothing? It’s pretty special how they managed.

Minny on the other hand finally got Rubio to come over and show everyone he’s legit, signed Anthony Tolliver, Wesley Johnson and JJ Barrea to a ridiculously favorable contracts. They picked up the perfect coach in Rick Adleman. Anthony Randolph and Beasley are showing signs of coming around. And oh yea, they drafted Derrick Williams who has all-star written all over him. Minny wins.
I think Dallas loses. Not paying Chandler was worth it in the long run, but their team is undeniably weaker. That they can’t motivate Lamar Odom beyond scrub level hoop and that their geriatric roster is even older, it’s looking pretty sad for the champs.

Billy Hoyle – KeeperOfTheCourt.com

Best: LA Clippers. Sure, they had to give up a good amount of young talent, but it was more than worth it. Butler was an underrated pickup, and while I’m not a huge fan of running Billups at the two position, the Clippers have transformed themselves into a versatile, intelligent team who can contend for many upcoming years.

Worst: Sacramento Kings. They offered a $40 million dollar contract to Marcus Thornton – a scorer. As if they didn’t already possess enough one-dimensional players in Fredette, Salmons, and Garcia? The newly acquired Travis Outlaw has also proven to be worthless for the Kings. Thornton’s contract, along with these signings and the loss of their most willing passer in Udrih provide for a laughable situation in Sacramento. Things aren’t looking any better when you consider Cousins’ attitude problems and the recent firing of Paul Westphal.