Keeper Of The Court

In Hold the Hype: Blake Griffin, I did my best to post video clips which may point to visible flaws in Blake’s game.  This was done by looking at the LAC’s playoff series versus the SAS this last postseason. I was able to find all of my material by looking at just five quarters – game 3 and a tiny bit of game 4.

However, I’ve heard a few things along the lines of: “Blake was injured” and “of course he’ll look bad against the best executing team in the league.” Now, I think these reactions are essentially excuses in defense of Blake, so in an attempt to dissipate them, I looked at a regular season game of LAC against PHO.

March 28th: Second play of the game against the Suns, Blake decides he doesn’t want to stick with his man and get back on defense. The result is an easy dunk for Gortat:

Next, we have a completely-disinterested-in-moving-his-feet Blake. He saw DJ involved in the pick and roll, yet wrongly assumed that there would be help behind him.

A far too frequent occurrence with Blake (not great footwork):

In hope of a fast break about to ignite (dunk time?!), Blake starts to run down the floor. Only thing is, he leaves his man which leads to an easy basket:

No commitment to improving his teammates positioning:

A very commonly seen screen-set with Blake:

Here’s Blake wanting to go up for a dunk from way far out. The defense shifts and he realizes he is unable to do this. What he could have easily done is pulled up for a short jumper or jumphook and had it been uncontested. Instead, after hesitating, he is forced to make a pass that was there all along:

Blake mixing up his defensive rotation, committing a poor foul, and knocking into his teammate (pay close attention – at the end you can see, “OK, that’s my fault then”):

Here’s Blake inexplicably taking off from a yard before the free throw line in an attempt to block Shannon Brown’s 3 point attempt:

Finally, we have something good. Just so that we can remember what Blake Griffin does amazingly:

The Miami Heat: 2011-12 World Champions.

We all followed the events of their playoff run: Bosh’s injury. Wade’s poor five point game versus Indiana. Battier’s unexpected supremacy. Lebron’s enormous elimination game in Boston. Miller’s huge breakout game, being the most important – a closeout game in the Finals. The big three finally getting what they came together for, and endured extreme scrutiny for – a championsip. Lebron’s moment … finally. Bosh’s peculiar celebration techniques. We all saw it, and though it just occurred, we’ve thoroughly discussed, dissected, and relived the happenings of this historic NBA Finals.

But as a true Lebron James fan, as a person who’s watched, studied, supported him – felt for him – this is something I need to process and rehash myself. I need to sit down and think about what all of this means. Lebron’s moment … finally.

And when I sit down and take it all in – I’ve been doing it for a couple days now – I feel nothing but delight and optimism. The basis of this optimism, this delight, stems from two sources.

Source 1: The media has nowhere to hide.

I think we know what I think about the media’s agendas, and how they’ve bothered me to my very core. Concerning Lebron, over the last two years, it’s all been too familiar: Lebron doesn’t show up in the 4th quarter. Lebron hides during big moments. Lebron doesn’t have a killer instinct.

And it’s all baloney. A fan that’s familiar with the game – an honest one – never honestly believed those statements were true. With his crunchtime production numbers, his playoff series over the years, with his big performances in elimination games, with his respectable game-winner percentages … it all just didn’t hold any merit. It was merely the media’s decision to perpetuate a narrative that consisted of hawking an unselfish, ultra-talented player.

And now they’re going to pay for it. Lebron was the unanimous regular season MVP, a master throughout in terms of defense, passing, scoring, leadership … and then, he continued on with all of this in the playoffs against elite competition. He demonstrated ultimate confidence in his game, responding to defenses masterfully with great midrange, post, and passing games whilst playing with complete poise.  Over and over again. He put up zero (zero!) bad performances over the span of these hard-fought playoffs – treating us with a collection of only good, great, and historic ones. He delivered in big moments and big games, and he carried his team like few players ever have.

So at this point, those holding the views as seen from above really have nothing substantial to hold onto other than James’ controversial showing versus Boston (’10) and his subpar performance in the 2011 Finals. But again, it gets worse for them: On the night of the Heat’s victory, Mark Cuban, the Dallas Mavericks owner, had an on-camera conversation in which he publicly stated what they didn’t want to hear. In 2011 against my team, Lebron made the right plays most of the time. Lebron played like Magic, and his teammates couldn’t make winning plays. Yep, Lebron could have, and should have played better. But Dallas’ Box-And-One zone and shifting defenses – as Cuban explains to those who refused to acknowledge it before – really disallowed Lebron to get comfortable, and it got the ball out of his hands. In essence, Lebron didn’t have a poor Finals showing because of some intangible flaw. He had a poor Finals because Dallas played him beautifully (not his fault), and he wasn’t comfortable enough where he could respond accordingly (his fault, and his repertoire’s fault). In this conversation, Cuban’s demeanor ranged from in-your-face to sarcastic to giggly to respectful yet all-knowing, and in handling it so beautifully he nearly stripped ESPN of all of its remaining credibility. And coming after these Finals, I couldn’t have enjoyed it more:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyjCgfDDIrU&feature=relmfu

Source two: Lebron James is free.

He’s free. No monkey on his back. No clips on his wings. No Shaqs on his Suns. Lebron can be less  worrisome, and play with less desperation. He can coast in the regular season more and not worry about repercussions. He can worry less about every play being scrutinized. He can … be at peace. James is now able to concentrate on himself more, and so can his teammates, because they’ve been through it together, they’ve succeeded, and they’re an established unit. They now have trust, and they now have shared experience. Things only go upward right now.

But here’s what I especially like from all of this: Lebron has recently begun his athletic decline, and despite this, he’s been getting better and better every day. I’m not just talking about the post game that he now feels comfortable implementing. Not just his floater and improved jump hook. He’s a smarter shot taker, he’s an improved passer, he’s a better screen setter and rebounder, and he’s a more versatile, better team defender. Every single day, he’s improving. He’s now seen what kind of damage he can do with by focusing in the post. And with this new freedom of his, he’s going to experience growths upon growths.

As a fan of both the game and Lebron James, and as a person hoping for radical change in both the media’s representations of players and its methodology of analysis, I couldn’t be happier about what the future may hold. Delight. Optimism.

Lebron’s free, and so are we.

1. Grade the playoffs so far. What has been surprising? What has been disappointing?

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

2011-12 playoffs: B minus. The good: 1) The discovery of a super-intelligent, team-oriented, and seemingly unbeatable team in the SAS 2) Two enormous performances by James and Rondo, totaling to 89 points, 23 rebounds, and 15 assists 3) In displaying both discipline and an understanding of good basketball, several young teams – IND, PHI, and OKC – showed the world how bright the league’s future really is 4) The league’s veterans demonstrating their lasting value by knocking down shots/filling their roles perfectly (Battier, Fisher, Diaw) or by full-on carrying their teams at times (Duncan, Garnett, Pierce) 5) LAC’s historic rally-from-behind victory and 6) SAS putting on a display of the best offense I’ve ever seen in my life (WCF game two, 3rd quarter, 11:00 – 5:15 remaining).

The not-so-good: 1) Series-altering injuries to: Iman Shumpert, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard (preceded playoffs), Chris Paul, Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose, Amare Stoudemire, and Avery Bradley. 2) The refereeing. Both conference finals – BOS/MIA especially – saw stretches of terrible officiating. In games that are decided by a possession or two, this is an issue. 3) The overall level of play – initially, MEM LAC was exciting, but constant rough housing and painfully slow pace provided for nothing we’d want to rewatch; Chicago, New York, Indiana (2nd round), and Dallas underperformed; we didn’t get to see the second best team in the East play; MIA has looked broken at times and seemingly helpless without Lebron. 4) The coaching. Spoelstra, Brooks, Vogel, Woodson, Vinny – I see you.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

A. Maybe A-. While the Bulls going down messed up the East and the opening rounds were substandard I really don’t recall a post-season since the 90′s when 3 teams were coming into the conference finals playing at a higher level then the Spurs, Thunder and Heat. Then the 4′th team was Boston. Indy/Miami was nothing short of a coming out party for the Pacers (long time fan, if I’m a fan of any team). They’ve been full of true moments too. Rondo’s domination in the playoffs outplaying any and all other point guards and affirming himself as Boston’s true franchise player. Longtime fans now want KG and Ray Allen traded. Wade’s 180 from scrub to dominant in one game come to mind. I’ve seen some things I’ve never seen before.

Most surprising to me is that after a season playing better then I ever thought Lebron could play he’s come up with these responses to perhaps the largest pressure games in history (Game 4 Indy, Game 6 Boston) with poise that I use to drink a cup of tepid coffee. Most disappointing is the greed of the league stuffing 66 games into 120 days which I really feel resulted in the stretch of injuries.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

I’ll give it a B+. The first round was largely boring outside of LAC-Memphis and OKC-Dal (even though it was a sweep). And the injury to Rose kind of dampened the entire mood. The semifinals were decent, though the Boston-Philly series was almost unwatchable. The playoffs have been saved by the terrific WCF and the 2 games so far in the finals. The ECF were okay though reffing really hurt the first 5 games of that series.

The biggest surprise in one game was Rondo’s shooting in game 2 of the ECF, the biggest surprise overall was KG’s resurgence. He was playing better after the all star break but I don’t think anyone really expected 19 and 10 with a thoroughly ridiculous +/-. The biggest disappointment has to be the injuries. I know it’s not something that can be controlled but it ruined the Eastern Conference. Injuries to Rose, Bosh, and Bradley severely weakened the 3 best teams in the east.

Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

The season, and the playoffs, have been full of ups and downs this time around. From season-ending injuries to key players and the emergence of two rookie point guards, the NBA has seen it’s fair share of good and bad moments in the past seven months. While NBA fans did have to witness a Rose-less Bulls squad go up against Philadelphia in the first round, they also got a chance to see the epic Clippers-Memphis series in the other conference.

With the lockout-induced injuries piling up, fans started to question whether or not the 2011-2012 season would have an asterisk beside it. Despite the many anomalies we’ve witnessed, the Heat and the Thunder in the finals was a predictable match-up from day one. These two teams beat every champion of the past eleven years in the playoffs, to get where they are. Fans are truly witnessing the end of an era. Asterisk or not, this season will be remembered for many changes, and I’m not talking about the luxury tax.

For me, the most surprising thing has to be Lebron James game six performance against Boston at the TD Garden. Even though he’s (quite undeniably) the best player in the league, a display like that is a surprise from anyone. The only other player to post 45 points, 15 boards and five assists in a playoff game was Wilt Chamberlain. Anytime someone hits Wilt stat-line levels in the modern era, it’s legendary.

The biggest disappoint of the post-season has got to be the Los Angeles Clippers. I don’t think too many people expected them to beat the Spurs, but to see them lay down the way they did. Coming off two blow-out losses, the Clippers took an early 24 point lead in game three, finally responding to the beating they’ve been taken. That is, until they allowed the Spurs to go on a 24-0, yes 24 to nothing, run and take command of the game. Chris Paul was a shell of himself, with his first Paul-esque game coming in game 4. Blake Griffin on the other hand, had his hands more than full trying to handle Tim Duncan. He struggled to 21 points per game on 47% shooting for the series, and only broke the double digit mark in rebounding once. The subpar play from the stars had an adverse affect on the whole team, as Lob City found themselves on the wrong end of a sweep.

2. Now that two games have passed, what does the rest of the NBA Finals hold?

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

More fast, athletic basketball and more great play from Lebron and KD, hopefully. No matter what happens, this Finals is going to go down in history, because, think about it – it contains: five of the top fifteen players in the world, two of the league’s best players matched up head-to-head, a slew of great defenders and role players, and the most scrutinized team in basketball history. This may not be the best basketball these teams have played all year, but everything going on in this series is a joy to watch. I’m also going to stick by my prediction of Miami in six.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

I’m cheating here since this is after game 3, but it’s still the same answer. It still feels to me that every game is must win for the Heat. So far the Thunder have had difficulty responding to the pressure of the finals. All it takes is one win for that pressure to lift, know that Miami has to close out in OKC, and start playing loose, free and focused. If the Heat go up 3-1 then they are in the drivers seat but until they do, even down 2-1, I feel the series and the senseless finals 2-3-2 format decidedly favors them. That being said, if Lebron can keep coming up with the aforementioned responses it won’t happen. Game 4 holds either a huge shift in pressure to the Heat that won’t be resolved till game 7, or a huge crushing defeat leading to a game 5 loss for Thunder team that proved in need of a few more lumps to get a ring. Wade/Lebron need to bring their best game of the year and put their boot on the throat of Durant et al. If they have it in them is going to be fantastic to watch.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

Hopefully a lot more of the same. I don’t imagine Durant manages to shoot this well for much longer (he’s currently at 57/44 % for field goals and threes, and he’s attempting 9 threes per game), I expect Westbrook to shoot a little better and for OKC to eventually fix their slow starts. I’m really hoping for a 7 game series and I really don’t care who wins, similar to the WCF I just hope this series goes forever.

Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

My original prediction was Oklahoma in six games, and I’ll stick with the Thunder even though it’s looking a little bleak for them right now. I see them heading home down 2 – 3 though. I’m pulling for Lebron here and even though they hold a 2 – 1 edge right now, I don’t think Oklahoma will play as badly at home.

3. What is going on with Dwyane Wade this postseason?

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

My guess: Wade has publicly relinquished his alpha-dog position to Lebron, which has perhaps given him a bit of an idea that he can coast. This being paired with his lasting injuries and tired body, we’ve seen an inconsistent Dwyane Wade.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

Injury, with fingers crossed that it’s not just old age. I’ve heard rumors that Wade had a cortizone shot to help his ailing knee in the Indy series. The way he came out in game 3 it looks like he maybe had something else. Even if he’s injured though this has to be considered perhaps the worst post-season of his career. At times he’s looked like a scrub on the floor who takes undiciplined hero shots in an attempt to impact the game. Then at other times he’s looked like the 2009 MVP candidate like in the first half of game 3. The amazing thing however is that I’m not sure if he’s had more then one complete game in the playoffs. It’s very un-Wade.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

I like Wade, so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and saying he’s injured. He played much much better in game 2 than he had in quite a while. After draining his knee following game 3 of the Indiana series he looked like a totally different player. I’m not giving him excuses, he needs to either get that explosiveness back or acknowledge that he doesn’t have it and stop shooting 20 times a game. He’s still a legitimate threat to OKC and for some reason no matter how bad he plays for the first 44 minutes he starts making shots in the last 4.

Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

If it wasn’t for his last few games against Indiana, I’d chalk up Dwyane Wade’s failure to perform as a sign that father time is catching up with him. However, it’s clear that something changed during that Boston series. Whether it was their tantalizing defense or an unknown injury is up for debate. The age thing plays a role as well. He hasn’t been “flash” for at least two years now, but you’d never see back-to-back terrible performances from Wade like you do now, last year. The lockout-shortened season, adjusting to taking a backseat to Lebron and learning how to be effective at 30 years old are all factors as to why he’s playing like he is. Perhaps the adjustment wouldn’t be so painful if his body didn’t decide to slow down on him right in the middle of the playoffs, but for some reason his step is just not the same on a consistent basis.

4. How do you see next season panning out? Will it be much different from this last season?

Billy Hoyle – Keeperofthecourt.com

This season was a bit cray cray. The Knicks’ successes and failures provided for a roller coaster ride of great highs and low lows. The Clippers had a superstar come and change their entire team’s culture. The Blazers inexplicably fell apart after a dominant start. SVG attempted to throw Dwight under the bus and eventually got fired. An unusual candidate in Mike Brown came in and did a pretty decent job of coaching in Los Angeles. And although they did so quietly, Indiana surprised everyone with their dominant record in the East.

There will likely be drama of various sorts, but I don’t see huge changes standings-wise. I expect Miami, Chicago, and Indiana to remain atop the East, and I expect San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and the Clippers to be atop the West. The Lakers are going downhill a bit, and Boston has a huge chance of suffering some hits to their lineup. Steve Nash moving to a better team where he can remain ball-dominant could change the league’s landscape, however, and Deron Williams also possesses the same ability. Oh, and if Lebron carries his team to a title, we can (thankfully) see the media shut up and stop dissecting his every move and action. Do it for us, Bron.

The Pest – Full Court Pest

It really depends on who wins these finals. If the Thunder win Durant will sky rocket to the top of the league’s conciousness while the media and fans try to figure out what they think of Lebron and the Heat. If the Heat win it means all but the most dedicated nay sayers will jump off the hate wagon that’s been hitched to the NBA by Skip Bayless and dragged the sport along for two years. The result: the NBA can return to being a sport focused on competition with new budding rivalry between two teams who are just fantastic to watch play eachother. I’m rooting for the latter not becasue I’m a fan of Lebron James, and surely not for Miami’s god awful fans but rather because Miami winning and ending this irrational discusion limbo is good for basketball. Miami will get the respect they’ve earned and when I root for OKC to beat them it will be seen as an achivement OKC gets credit for rather then the Mavs fate of being considered (falsely) the team Miami beat themselves to.

The Elusive Heisenberg – Full Court Pest

OKC will win the West, they should have won this year but the Spurs played unfathomably well down the stretch and OKC sort of relaxed. They will bring everybody back and Durant seems to have improved even more. Spurs should be back in the thick of things, they very easily could be in the finals right now. Bulls might flounder a bit if Rose takes as long as expected to return from injury, meaning Miami will get the number 1 seed out east.

Overall the season should be better than last season because the quality of ball will be better. It wasn’t especially bad this year but there were a fair few injuries that likely occurred because of the stupid schedule. Oh, and the Raptors will win the title.

Hoopstradamus – Hoopstradamus.com

Well for one thing, Dwight Howard may finally have found his new home in the NBA by then. If not, most of the narratives will still be revolving around him. The Thunder winning in the NBA finals would put even more pressure on Lebron James and the Miami Heat while a Heat win would crush all of ESPN’s narratives. It’s going to be a very interesting week-and-a-half of basketball. This year’s Eastern conference first seed might completely retool the team, or even tank the season. In the other conference, questions will be looming about rebuilding the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks. Oh, and to really signify the end of an era, the Boston Celtics will look very, very different come November.

Following their recent ousting by the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics and their fans have been left with a sour taste in their mouth. You’d think it wouldn’t exactly be the best time to highlight one of their players.

But there’s something to celebrate here, as Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics has done something legendary – something that only a handful of players have accomplished, and most of them being amongst the best to ever play. Rondo has now crossed off five full playoff seasons, a period of time during which his playoff production has noticeably improved from that of the regular season. This is especially difficult to do, because not only is the level of competition higher in the playoffs, teams are more locked in. The difficulty of this task becomes apparent when considering that from a statistical point of view, this has been done by only eight notable players in NBA history (and two of them didn’t even play sufficient minutes).

So – apologies, Michael Jordan. Sorry Larry Bird. Not you Kobe, and not you either, Chris Paul. The label “able to take it up another level” belongs more to Rajon Rondo than it does to you.

What makes Rondo so good, and how does he do it?

Generally speaking, Rondo is a bit of an anomaly. Despite being a point guard and one of the smallest players on the floor, his rebounding and defense outshine his shooting and scoring abilities. He’s a 6’1″ triple double machine. He’d prefer to post up a player that’s four inches taller than him rather than take a wide open shot from 15 feet. Despite being a small guy, his hands swallow up the ball like yours might a softball. He’s neither big nor explosive, yet he’s great at scoring in the paint. He doesn’t appear to be a natural ball-handler – hell, he doesn’t seem to be a very natural basketball player – but he’s exceptional at being both.

Rondo is exceptional at deceiving the defense. The defense doesn’t know when, or where, he’s going to make his pass. He’ll seem to be recklessly slip ‘n slidin’ to the hoop, only to stop on a dime and throw a one-handed pass at an awkward angle. You’ll also notice that he’ll be dribbling and suddenly give the ball one extra-hard bounce, enabling him to make an instant one-handed pass – the defense can’t anticipate it because he does it straight out of the dribble and doesn’t gather himself. He’ll enact a slow left-to-right crossover, collecting the ball … only to whip it back quickly in the form of a bounce pass to his teammate. And don’t ask my why defenses always fall for it, but his behind-the-back pass fake works 100% of the time. So does his rendition of the cup-the-ball shot fake which turns into an uncontested turnaround. He’s got a great euro step. He uses both hands for passing and finishing very well, and interestingly, is perfectly capable of jumping off of the wrong foot at any time.

How does this all come together and help him during the playoffs? My guess is that his competitive edge plays into him shooting more aggressively; as he is unworried of potential repercussions, his main flaw in jumpshooting is disregarded, and he becomes nearly impossible to deal with. Then again, maybe not. Maybe he just knows how to save his energy for when it really matters.

Either way, we can all acknowledge his postseason greatness, and what this seems to be pointing toward – a great legacy being in its infant stages.

To see how Rondo fits in (and just for curiosity’s sake), I have worked to compile the production statistics for what I consider to be most of the notable players in recent NBA history, organized by increases/decrease in playoff production (must have 5+ years of playoff experience). Without further ado:

Players Seeing an Increase in Production

Baron Davis (PG)

Regular Season:

15.2 PTS / 3.8 TRB / 6.7 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.4 BLK / 2.7 TOV in 33.9 MP

PER: 17.7
TS%: 50.3

Playoffs:

18.8 PTS / 4.3 TRB / 6.2 AST / 2.3 STL / 0.5 BLK / 2.6 TOV in 37.0 MP

PER: 21.4
TS%: 54.8

Isiah Thomas (PG)

Regular Season:

19.6 PTS / 3.7 TRB / 9.9 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.3 BLK / 3.7 TOV in 36.7 MP

PER: 18.9
TS%: 52.2

Playoffs:

20.4 PTS / 4.7 TRB / 8.9 AST / 2.1 STL / 0.3 BLK / 3.3 TOV in 38.0 MP

PER: 19.8
TS%: 52.0

Gus Williams (PG)

Regular Season:

17.6 PTS / 2.8 TRB / 5.6 AST / 2.0 STL / 0.4 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 31.8 MP

PER: 18.7
TS%: 50.6

Playoffs:

19.5 PTS / 3.1 TRB / 4.7 AST / 1.8 STL / 0.4 BLK / 2.0 TOV in 32.5 MP

PER: 20.4
TS%: 51.9

Hakeem Olajuwon (C)

Regular Season:

22.8 PTS / 11.4 TRB / 2.6 AST / 1.8 STL / 3.2 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 36.6 MP

PER: 23.9
TS%: 55.6

Playoffs:

25.9 PTS / 11.2 TRB / 3.2 AST / 1.7 STL / 3.3 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 39.6 MP

PER: 25.7
TS%: 56.9

Robert Horry (PF)

Regular Season:

7.0 PTS / 4.8 TRB / 2.1 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.9 BLK / 1.2 TOV in 24.5 MP

PER: 13.4
TS%: 52.0

Playoffs:

7.9 PTS / 5.6 TRB / 2.4 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.9 BLK / 1.2 TOV in 28.0 MP

PER: 14.4
TS%: 54.6

Tim Duncan (PF/C)

Regular Season:

20.3 PTS / 11.3 TRB / 3.1 AST / 0.7 STL / 2.2 BLK / 2.6 TOV in 35.4 MP

PER: 24.7
TS%: 55.1

Playoffs:

22.3 PTS / 12.1 TRB / 3.4 AST / 0.7 STL / 2.5 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 39.0 MP

PER: 25.3
TS%: 54.9

Rajon Rondo (PG)

Regular Season:

11.8 PTS / 4.6 TRB / 9.0 AST / 2.0 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 34.5 MP

PER: 17.7
TS%: 51.9

Playoffs:

14.5 PTS / 6.0 TRB / 9.2 AST / 2.0 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 38.5 MP

PER: 18.5
TS%: 48.7

Shawn Kemp (PF)

Regular Season:

15.5 PTS / 9.1 TRB / 1.8 AST / 1.2 STL / 1.3 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 29.7 MP

PER: 19.5
TS%: 56.4

Playoffs:

17.3 PTS / 9.7 TRB / 1.8 AST / 1.1 STL / 1.6 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 33.4 MP

PER: 20.5
TS%: 58.4

Players with Similar Production / Negligible Drops in Production

Tracy McGrady

Regular Season:

22.8 PTS / 6.1 TRB / 4.9 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.9 BLK / 2.4 TOV in 35.6 MP

PER: 23.4
TS%: 52.5

Playoffs:

25.9 PTS / 6.3 TRB / 5.5 AST / 1.2 STL / 1.0 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 38.5 MP

PER: 23.7
TS%: 51.5

Kevin McHale

Regular Season:

17.9 PTS / 7.3 TRB / 1.7 AST / 0.4 STL / 1.7 BLK / 1.9 TOV in 31.0 MP

PER: 20.0
TS%: 60.5

Playoffs:

18.8 PTS / 7.4 TRB / 1.6 AST / 0.4 STL / 1.7 BLK / 1.9 TOV in 33.8 MP

PER: 19.4
TS%: 61.8

James Worthy

Regular Season:

18.2 PTS / 5.3 TRB / 3.0 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.1 TOV in 33.2 MP

PER: 18.1
TS%: 57.2

Playoffs:

21.1 PTS / 5.2 TRB / 3.2 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.1 TOV in 37.0 MP

PER: 18.3
TS%: 57.8

Scottie Pippen

Regular Season:

16.3 PTS / 6.4 TRB / 5.3 AST / 2.0 STL / 0.8 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 35.2 MP

PER: 18.7
TS%: 53.7

Playoffs:

17.5 PTS / 7.6 TRB / 5.0 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.9 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 39.0 MP

PER: 18.4
TS%: 52.4

Reggie Miller

Regular Season:

18.7 PTS / 3.0 TRB / 3.0 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.2 BLK / 1.7 TOV in 35.0 MP

PER: 18.6
TS%: 61.7

Playoffs:

20.6 PTS / 2.9 TRB / 2.5 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.2 BLK / 1.8 TOV in 36.9 MP

PER: 19.5
TS%: 60.1

Dirk Nowitzki

Regular Season:

24.1 PTS / 8.7 TRB / 2.7 AST / 0.9 STL / 1.0 BLK / 2.0 TOV in 37.2 MP

PER: 24.5
TS%: 58.4

Playoffs:

25.9 PTS / 10.3 TRB / 2.6 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.9 BLK / 2.3 TOV in 41.3 MP

PER: 24.7
TS%: 58.4

Michael Jordan

Regular Season:

31.5 PTS / 6.3 TRB / 5.4 AST / 2.5 STL / 0.9 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 38.6 MP

PER: 29.1
TS%: 58.0%

Playoffs:

33.4 PTS / 6.4 TRB / 5.7 AST / 2.1 STL / 0.9 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 41.8 MP

PER: 28.6
TS%: 56.8

Allen Iverson

Regular Season:

28.6 PTS / 3.8 TRB / 6.0 AST / 2.3 STL / 0.2 BLK / 3.6 TOV in 42.1 MP

PER: 21.6
TS%: 51.8

Playoffs:

29.7 PTS / 3.8 TRB / 6.0 AST / 2.1 STL / 0.2 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 45.1 MP

PER: 21.2
TS%: 48.9

Chauncey Billups

Regular Season:

16.1 PTS / 3.0 TRB / 5.9 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.1 TOV in 32.8 MP

PER: 19.8
TS%: 58.9

Playoffs:

17.8 PTS / 3.4 TRB / 5.9 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.2 TOV in 37.2 MP

PER: 19.4
TS%: 58.0

Charles Barkley

Regular Season:

21.7 PTS / 11.8 TRB / 4.0 AST / 1.6 STL / 0.8 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 36.4 MP

PER: 24.4
TS%: 60.8

Playoffs:

23.0 PTS / 12.9 TRB / 3.9 AST / 1.6 STL / 0.9 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 39.4 MP

PER: 24.2
TS%: 58.4

Carmelo Anthony

Regular Season:

24.7 PTS / 6.3 TRB / 3.1 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.5 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 36.2 MP

PER: 20.4
TS%: 54.4

Playoffs:

24.9 PTS / 7.4 TRB / 3.0 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.4 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 38.9 MP

PER: 19.9
TS%: 51.8

Players with Typical Decline in Playoff Production

Adrian Dantley

Regular Season:

22.6 PTS / 5.3 TRB / 2.8 AST / 0.9 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.6 TOV in 33.9 MP

PER: 20.9
TS%: 61.5

Playoffs:

21.3 PTS / 5.4 TRB / 2.3 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 34.5 MP

PER: 19.3
TS%: 60.6

Jason Terry

Regular Season:

16.1 PTS / 2.3 TRB / 4.1 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.2 BLK / 1.7 TOV in 32.7 MP

PER: 17.7
TS%: 56.8

Playoffs:

16.9 PTS / 2.7 TRB / 3.5 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.1 BLK / 1.8 TOV in 35.4 MP

PER: 16.4
TS%: 55.8

Ray Allen

Regular Season:

19.3 PTS / 4.0 TRB / 3.4 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.0 TOV in 36.6 MP

PER: 18.7
TS%: 58.7

Playoffs:

18.2 PTS / 4.0 TRB / 3.0 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.3 BLK / 1.7 TOV in 38.8 MP

PER: 16.9
TS%: 58.5

Kobe Bryant

Regular Season:

25.4 PTS / 5.3 TRB / 4.7 AST / 1.5 STL / 0.5 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 36.5 MP

PER: 23.4
TS%: 55.4

Playoffs:

25.6 PTS / 5.1 TRB / 4.7 AST / 1.4 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.94 TOV in 39.3 MP

PER: 22.4
TS%: 54.1

Pau Gasol

Regular Season:

18.6 PTS / 9.3 TRB / 3.4 AST / 0.6 STL / 1.5 BLK / 2.2 TOV in 36.0 MP

PER: 22.2
TS%: 57.7

Playoffs:

17.3 PTS / 9.6 TRB / 3.3AST / 0.6 STL / 1.9 BLK / 1.9 TOV in 38.7 MP

PER: 20.9
TS%: 56.8

Dominique Wilkins

Regular Season:

24.6 PTS / 6.7 TRB / 2.5 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.6 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 35.5 MP

PER: 21.4
TS%: 53.8

Playoffs:

25.4 PTS / 6.7 TRB / 2.6 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.6 BLK / 2.7 TOV in 38.8 MP

PER: 18.7
TS%: 51.0

Alonzo Mourning

Regular Season:

17.4 PTS / 8.7 TRB / 1.1 AST / 0.5 STL / 2.9 BLK / 2.7 TOV in 31.4 MP

PER: 21.6
TS%: 58.5

Playoffs:

13.6 PTS / 7.0 TRB / 0.9 AST / 0.5 STL / 2.3 BLK / 2.4 TOV in 27.3 MP

PER: 19.2
TS%: 57.0

Lebron James

Regular Season:

28.7 PTS / 7.4 TRB / 7.0 AST / 1.7 STL / 0.9 BLK / 3.3 TOV in 39.6 MP

PER: 28.8
TS%: 58.2

Playoffs:

28.5 PTS / 8.6 TRB / 6.7 AST / 1.7 STL / 1.0 BLK / 3.6 TOV in 43.4 MP

PER: 27.1
TS%: 56.4

Dwyane Wade

Regular Season:

25.2 PTS / 5.1 TRB / 6.2 AST / 1.8 STL / 1.0 BLK / 3.5 TOV in 37.2 MP

PER: 25.7
TS%: 56.6

Playoffs:

25.4 PTS / 5.6 TRB / 5.3 AST / 1.7 STL / 1.1 BLK / 3.8 TOV in 40.3 MP

PER: 24.2
TS%: 56.4

Larry Bird

Regular Season:

24.3 PTS / 10.0 TRB / 6.4 AST / 1.7 STL / 0.8 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 38.4 MP

PER: 23.4
TS%: 56.5

Playoffs:

23.8 PTS / 10.3 TRB / 6.5 AST / 1.8 STL / 0.9 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 42.0 MP

PER: 21.4
TS%: 55.1

Patrick Ewing

Regular Season:

21.9 PTS / 10.1 TRB / 1.9 AST / 0.9 STL / 2.6 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 34.8 MP

PER: 21.8
TS%: 55.7

Playoffs:

20.2 PTS / 10.3 TRB / 2.0 AST / 0.9 STL / 2.2 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 37.5 MP

PER: 19.6
TS%: 51.7

Kevin Garnett

Regular Season:

19.6 PTS / 10.5 TRB / 4.2 AST / 1.4 STL / 1.5 BLK / 2.4 TOV in 36.9 MP

PER: 23.1
TS%: 54.5

Playoffs:

19.5 PTS / 11.0 TRB / 3.5 AST / 1.3 STL / 1.4 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 38.6 MP

PER: 21.5
TS%: 52.3

Steve Nash

Regular Season:

15.2 PTS / 3.0 TRB / 8.5 AST / 0.8 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 31.2 MP

PER: 21.0
TS%: 60.8

Playoffs:

17.3 PTS / 3.5 TRB / 8.9 AST / 0.6 STL / 0.1 BLK / 3.2 TOV in 35.8 MP

PER: 19.9
TS%: 58.4

Paul Pierce

Regular Season:

21.6 PTS / 5.9 TRB / 4.0 AST / 1.4 STL / 0.6 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 36.8 MP

PER: 20.2
TS%: 57.1

Playoffs:

21.0 PTS / 6.4 TRB / 3.9 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.7 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 39.6 MP

PER: 18.1
TS%: 55.2

Magic Johnson

Regular Season:

19.5 PTS / 7.2 TRB / 11.2 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.4 BLK / 3.9 TOV in 36.7 MP

PER: 24.1
TS%: 61.0

Playoffs:

19.5 PTS / 7.7 TRB / 12.3 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.3 BLK / 3.7 TOV in 39.7 MP

PER: 23.0
TS%: 59.5

John Stockton

Regular Season:

13.1 PTS / 2.7 TRB / 10.5 AST / 2.2 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 31.8 MP

PER: 21.8
TS%: 60.8

Playoffs:

13.4 PTS / 3.3 TRB / 10.1 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.3 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 35.2 MP

PER: 19.8
TS%: 56.8

Shaquille O’Neal

Regular Season:

24.1 PTS / 10.8 TRB / 2.6 AST / 0.6 STL / 2.2 BLK / 2.7 TOV in 34.8 MP

PER: 27.0
TS%: 58.4

Playoffs:

24.3 PTS / 11.6 TRB / 2.7 AST / 0.5 STL / 2.1 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 37.5 MP

PER: 26.1
TS%: 56.5

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Regular Season:

PER: 24.3
TS%: 59.7

24.2 PTS / 10.7 TRB / 3.5 AST / 0.9 STL / 2.4 BLK / 2.7 TOV in 36.3 MP

Playoffs:

24.3 PTS / 10.5 TRB / 3.2 AST / 0.8 STL / 2.0 BLK / 1.9 TOV in 37.3 MP

PER: 23.0
TS%: 57.1

Jason Kidd

Regular Season:

12.8 PTS / 6.4 TRB / 9.0 AST / 1.9 STL / 0.3 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 36.7 MP

PER: 18.3
TS%: 51.2

Playoffs:

13.9 PTS / 7.0 TRB / 8.5 AST / 2.0 STL / 0.3 BLK / 3.0 TOV in 40.0 MP

PER: 17.6
TS%: 50.2

Kevin Johnson

Regular Season:

18.9 PTS / 3.4 TRB / 9.6 AST / 1.5 STL / 0.2 BLK / 3.2 TOV in 35.3 MP

PER: 21.1
TS%: 58.8

Playoffs:

19.3 PTS / 3.3 TRB / 8.9 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.3 BLK / 3.4 TOV in 36.9 MP

PER: 19.1
TS%: 55.7

Moses Malone

Regular Season:

22.4 PTS / 13.2 TRB / 1.5 AST / 0.9 STL / 1.5 BLK / 3.3 TOV in 35.9 MP

PER: 23.0
TS%: 57.3

Playoffs:

22.1 PTS / 13.8 TRB / 1.4 AST / 0.9 STL / 1.6 BLK / 2.3 TOV in 40.4 MP

PER: 21.4
TS%: 54.7

Vince Carter

Regular Season:

22.4 PTS / 5.2 TRB / 3.9 AST / 1.2 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.1 TOV in 35.4 MP

PER: 21.4
TS%: 54.4

Playoffs:

22.3 PTS / 6.2 TRB / 4.2 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.4 TOV in 39.4 MP

PER: 19.1
TS%: 50.9

Tony Parker

Regular Season:

16.8 PTS / 3.0 TRB / 5.9 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 32. 9 MP

PER: 18.8
TS%: 54.7

Playoffs:

18.9 PTS / 3.2 TRB / 5.1 AST / 1.0 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.9 TOV in 36.3 MP

PER: 16.8
TS%: 51.6

Manu Ginobili

Regular Season:

15.1 PTS / 3.9 TRB / 4.0 AST / 1.5 STL / 0.3 BLK / 2.1 TOV in 28.0 MP

PER: 21.7
TS%: 59.1

Playoffs:

16.2 PTS / 4.5 TRB / 3.8 AST / 1.4 STL / 0.3 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 31.0 MP

PER: 20.2
TS%: 58.6

Brad Daugherty

Regular Season:

19.4 PTS / 9.5 TRB / 3.9 AST / 0.8 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 36.7 MP

PER: 19.4
TS%: 59.7

Playoffs:

19.1 PTS / 10.2 TRB / 3.3 AST / 0.7 STL / 1.0 BLK / 2.4 TOV in 39.0 MP

PER: 18.7
TS%: 58.8

Robert Parish

Regular Season:

15.1 PTS / 9.3 TRB / 1.4 AST / 0.7 STL / 1.4 BLK / 2.0 TOV in 29.3 MP

PER: 19.4
TS%: 59.7

Playoffs:

15.3 PTS / 9.6 TRB / 1.3 AST / 0.8 STL / 1.7 BLK / 2.0 TOV in 33.6 MP

PER: 16.6
TS%: 54.7

Dennis Rodman

Regular Season:

7.5 PTS / 12.8 TRB / 1.8 AST / 0.7 STL / 0.6 BLK / 1.6 TOV in 31.2 MP

PER: 15.0
TS%: 55.6

Playoffs:

6.4 PTS / 9.9 TRB / 1.2 AST / 0.6 STL / 0.6 BLK / 1.5 TOV in 28.3 MP

PER: 12.3
TS%: 51.1

Karl Malone

Regular Season:

25.0 PTS / 10.1 TRB / 3.6 AST / 1.4 STL / 0.8 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 37.2 MP

PER: 23.9
TS%: 57.7

Playoffs:

24.7 PTS / 10.7 TRB / 3.2 AST / 1.3 STL / 0.7 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 41.0 MP

PER: 21.1
TS%: 52.6

Players with Questionable Drops in Playoff Production

David Robinson

Regular Season:

21.1 PTS / 10.6 TRB / 2.5 AST / 1.4 STL / 3.0 BLK / 2.4 TOV in 34.7 MP

PER: 27.0
TS%: 58.4

Playoffs:

18.1 PTS / 10.6 TRB / 2.3 AST / 1.2 STL / 2.5 BLK / 2.3 TOV in 34.3 MP

PER: 23.0
TS%: 54.7

Gary Payton

Regular Season:

15.7 PTS / 3.9 TRB / 6.5 AST / 1.8 STL / 0.2 BLK / 2.2 TOV in 34.7 MP

PER: 18.4
TS%: 52.9

Playoffs:

14.0 PTS / 3.7 TRB / 5.3 AST / 1.4 STL / 0.2 BLK / 1.9 TOV in 35.6 MP

PER: 15.4
TS%: 50.6

Tim Hardaway

Regular Season:

18.4 PTS / 3.3 TRB / 8.2 AST / 1.7 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.8 TOV in 36.2 MP

PER: 19.2
TS%: 53.0

Playoffs:

16.8 PTS / 3.1 TRB / 6.8 AST / 1.6 STL / 0.2 BLK / 3.1 TOV in 36.6 MP

PER: 15.7
TS%: 50.2

Sam Cassell

Regular Season:

15.8 PTS / 3.2 TRB / 6.2 AST / 1.1 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.5 TOV in 30.5 MP

PER: 19.6
TS%: 54.7

Playoffs:

12.2 PTS / 2.6 TRB / 4.4 AST / 0.8 STL / 0.1 BLK / 2.0 TOV in 26.0 MP

PER: 15.9
TS%: 52.5

 

If you fancy likable NBA athletes, be warned: I am about to take a specific player – a rather beloved one at that – and list many things that I believe he does not do particularly well on the basketball court. This player I am about to analyze, Blake Griffin, is not a bad person. He is not a bad basketball player. He is an outstanding rebounder, a great ballhandler and a good passer for a big man, along with being a capable scorer.

But my interpretation of the public opinion on Blake is that he is rated too highly. He was recently selected for 2nd team All-NBA. Witnessing this, and especially when becoming subject to things like this, I feel as if I must intervene. So let’s get down to business.

Blake Griffin’s 2011-12 Season Averages:

20.7 PTS / 10.8 REB (3.3 OREB) / 3.2 AST / 0.7 BLK / 0.8 STL / 2.3 TOV / 2.6 PF / 23.4 PER on 54.6% FG in 36.2 MIN

Here’s what I have to say about Griffin: As seen from above, he has very good numbers; he’s undeniably a decent scorer, a great rebounder, and an able passer.  However, his numbers don’t reflect his true impact as a player. And that’s not meant in a good way.

Defense

Griffin’s defense is clearly not his strong suit, as his 0.7 blocks and 0.8 steals per game may indicate. But those numbers don’t tell the full story: According to Sports Synergy, in 2011-12, Griffin’s points allowed per play ranks ranks at 345th in the league  – he is 196th in defending isolations, 172nd in guarding post up plays, and a dreadful 342nd in defending spot-ups. His defensive rating of 104 also reflects his defensive woes a bit, as his big men teammates in Deandre Jordan, Kenyon Martin, and Reggie Evans all posted ratings of 102.

In paying close attention to his defense, you may notice some or all of the following:  1) Blake often doesn’t make the correct rotations, 2) he doesn’t close out hard enough 3) he doesn’t recognize incoming screeners or cutters 4) he doesn’t harass the ball handler  5) he rarely contests shots and 6) he has poor transition defense. That’s a lot that needs improvement. I will say that Griffin is very good at taking charges, and has decent lateral movement, but other than that, on the defensive end he’s just kind of “there”.

Scoring Efficiency

54.6% FG on 20.7 PPG is very respectable, but Blake’s TS of 55.7% is rather mediocre for a power forward. In fact, Griffin is outdone in TS% by the likes of Nick Collison, Amir Johnson, Kevin Love, Dirk Nowitzki, Lamarcus Aldridge, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcin Gortat, Ronny Turiaf, Carl Landry, and others. While he scores a good amount of points, he is only 47th in TS% amongst those listed at the forward position.^[Note]

Scoring Ability

According to Hoopdata, Blake Griffin converts 8.5 shots a game:

Rim:              5.3
3-9 Feet:       1.5
10-15 Feet:   0.2
16-23 Feet:   1.5
Threes:         0.0

Blake Griffin is actually assisted on 62.3% of 98% of the shots he makes (shots at the rim, from 3-9 feet, 16-23 feet), and he is assisted on 72.5% of 80% of the shots he takes (rim, 16-23). In total, he’s assisted in 62.7% of his shots. To compare him to those of the same breed (2011-12):  Percentage of shots assisted on:

Randolph: 41.7
Aldridge: 53.4
Millsap: 56.0
Love: 58.0
Amare: 61.1
Scola: 61.9
Lee: 62.3
Griffin: 62.7
Dirk: 63.6
Smith: 63.8
Bosh: 64.9
Gasol: 64.9

So while Griffin is towards the top, he’s not receiving the most help on his makes. But in considering that Blake takes and makes many more shots near the rim than every one of his peers, and that he’s assisted on them more than anyone else (65.7%), I’m not convinced that he’s so self sufficient. I think Blake is fortunate to be surrounded by the passing of CP3, Mo Williams, Eric Gordon and Baron Davis (2010-12). I will not deny that he is good at getting himself near the basket, which does give him a great chance to score. However, I don’t see him getting the same production on other teams with less capable guards – especially where he isn’t the only post option on the entire team.

Those like Dirk, Aldridge, Love, Randolph, and Scola may be scoring within the offense at the same rate as Blake Griffin (as indicated by %AST), but they’re often doing so from further out, which may suggest that they are more dependent on their own abilities – scoring with jumpshooting versus laying the ball in or dunking. This translates to any offense, lasts throughout the years, and speaks to their worth as players. It means something to be able to get to the rim, but we have to ask how much.

Put dunks and alley-oops aside. How do we know for sure that Griffin isn’t scoring a bunch of these points around the rim due to his own skills, which just happen to be recorded as assisted plays? Because of his:

Limited post game

As much as his fans may regret to admit it, Griffin’s post game consists of: A) spin moves to his left B) using brute strength, and C) flailing his body about like a fish out of water. Blake averages a mere 0.83 points per possession on post ups – compare this to Aldridge at 0.96, Gasol at 0.95, or Love at 0.93, for example. Scenario: Blake is having trouble scoring in the post, and for whatever reason, he’s not getting much help from his teammates. This becomes painful to watch considering:

Liability as shooter

Blake is a poor shooter – he shoots a putrid 32.35% from 10-23 feet.^[28] His lack of shooting hurts his team in two ways: 1) Defenses can cheat and 2) his inabilities completely disallow for the existence of the “pick and pop” option in LAC, which is a huge deal considering LAC has a point guard of CP3’s caliber at their disposal. We must also factor in Griffin’s 52.1% FT, which makes him an absolute endgame liability.

Blake Griffin is a below average screener and doesn’t space the floor well

Below:

Blake Griffin has a lower ceiling than some suggest

“But it’s only his third year in the league!” This may be true, but Blake hasn’t made any noticeable improvements since 2010. His efficiency percentages jumped slightly in a couple places (Chris Paul deserves a lot of credit here), and while the drop in assists is understandable (-0.6 APG), his rebound numbers did drop noticeably (–1.2 RPG) and his free throw shooting also took a turn for the worse (–12.1% and –1.4 FTA/G). His defense and post game didn’t get an ounce better, either.

Blake consistently puts his future health at risk with his “spectacular finish” infatuation. But assuming he doesn’t hurt himself gravely, this remains: At this point, there have very few all-time great post players who have exhibited a Griffenesque post game at the point in their career that Blake is now in (remember, he did attend college). I don’t imagine that a dunk-loving high flyer with a mediocre post game and a defective jumper will be extremely effective in his later career. Can he get better than he is now? Absolutely, and he will, but he shows no real signs of having this supposed “infinite ceiling.”

Blake Griffin is not a bad guy

As made apparent, I am rather critical of the man. He may care far too much about dunking, whine to referees excessively, and fall down more than anyone in history for his size. He may take far too long to operate in the offense, eating valuable seconds off the clock. It’s also very possible that he consistently taunts fellow players, and flops an insane amount for someone his age. But he’s not such a bad guy. He tries hard to win, he hustles, he remains relatively humble, and he shares the basketball. These are good qualities.

The issue at hand is that he’s the perfect model of a player to be well-liked: a highlight machine, hard-working, youthful, and seemingly modest. With his style, (high-flying, offensively-oriented), this can easily lead to being overrated. I merely want him to be rated fairly – a top 6 power forward in the league, a top 25 player, and a player with an average ceiling. And nothing more.

June 26th, 2012: Please click for part 2

Following the 2010-11 finals which included a stupendous eight point performance by Lebron James, I was the guy that said: “It’s clear now. A healthy CP3 is the best player in the league.” Did I believe that 100%, day-in and day-out? I didn’t. Truthfully, I only thought it was slightly possible until Lebron’s collection of puzzling performances.

But despite Lebron’s monster 2011-12 season, I’m once again here to say: the gap isn’t as big as you think. Yep – that “value” gap between Miami Heat Small Forward Lebron James and Los Angeles Clippers Point Guard Chris Paul? It’s closer to that of Larry and Magic than Michael and Kobe.

Wait a second. A soon-to-be unanimous MVP winner for the third time, a near DPOY, one of the best all-around players in the history of the game – can he really be challenged by a 6’0”, 175 pound point guard who’s not as spry as he once was?

In order to tackle this prickly porcupine, we need to address the talent at the point guard position first – to make sure Chris Paul is indeed worthy of this hefty claim. Removing any and all bias, here are my ratings by category -

So what separates Chris Paul from other elite point guards?

Scoring Ability – Rose (9.1), Paul (9.0), Parker (8.9), Westbrook (8.8), Williams (8.5), Nash (7.7), Rondo (7.0). Notes: Paul’s score of 9.0 isn’t in accordance with his PPG as compared to others, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a better scorer than some of them. He, like Nash, puts teammates first.

Shooting – Nash (9.9), Paul (9.4), Williams (9.3), Rose (9.1), Parker (9.0), Westbrook (8.6), Rondo (7.2).

Rebounding – Westbrook (6.6), Rondo (6.5), Paul (5.9), Rose (5.8), Nash (5.4), Williams (5.3), Parker (5.1). Notes: Westbrook and Rondo are both fantastic rebounders, but Westbrook gets the edge because of his offensive rebounding and Rondo’s lack of rebounders around him.

Defense – Paul (7.4), Rondo (7.4), Williams (7.2), Westbrook (7.0), Parker (6.8), Rose 6.7), Nash (5.5). Notes: Rondo and Paul are the best defenders here. Rondo is a more versatile defender and more effective at guarding taller players, but Paul’s activity is just so crucial. He’s an absolute pest, and a defensive leader.

Ball Control – Paul (9.8), Parker (9.5), Nash (9.4), Rose (9.2), Rondo (9.1), Williams (8.9), Westbrook (8.5). Notes: Looking at turnovers doesn’t tell the whole story here. Nash has a lot of turnovers, but many are a result of the offense he is forced to try to create in Phoenix; he must commit risky passes which have high reward. Parker and Westbrook look to score more than dish, but one of them is much more careful with the ball.

Basketball IQ – Paul (9.8), Nash (9.7), Parker (9.6), Rondo (9.6), Williams (9.3), Rose (8.6), Westbrook (8.3). Notes: Nash and Paul are two of the highest IQ players I have seen in my lifetime. One is the master of operating the pick and roll offense, one is the master of keeping his dribble alive and creating space, and both are masterful at their craft.

Passing Ability – Nash (9.8), Rondo (9.7), Paul (9.5), Williams (9.3), Rose (9.1), Parker (8.9), Westbrook (8.3).

Total – Paul (60.8), Parker (57.8), Williams (57.8), Rose (57.6), Nash (57.4), Rondo (56.5), Westbrook (56.0).

Keep in mind, these categories are not weighted. What this total looks to represent is the all-around abilities of these point guards. For the point guard position, it’s quite plausible that basketball IQ is the most important category since it affects all other categories – and in most systems, scoring ability is less important than passing (this would explain why Rondo is so low). Regardless, not only does Paul come out on top by a reasonable amount via the above calculations, he has incredible numbers in the four most important categories for point guards: Basketball IQ (9.8), Passing Ability (9.5), Ball Control (9.8), and Scoring (9.0).

Precisely why Paul stands out:

– A top ballhandler of all-time
– Extremely efficient scoring ability (rivaled by only all-time point guards)
– The 3rd highest steal per game average in NBA history
– 2nd highest offensive rating ever
– Top 10 passer of all-time
– Uses his body to protect the ball and break down defenses with calculated assaults

Now: the small things. This is where Chris Paul glistens. Paul is one of the few players I do not hesitate to call clutch. In 2011-12, Paul was 5th in the league in crunchtime scoring and first in the league in 4th quarter PER, with an impressive mark of 38.7.

Paul is the first one on the floor when the ball becomes loose. If you think this isn’t an important quality, you’re kidding yourself.

And we’ve all noticed his chattiness: Chris Paul is constantly barking orders at teammates, busy dictating the entire offense, and can still be seen throwing out advice while he’s on the bench. He’s even talking to the officials every time the game stops. But realize this: Chris is better at working the officials than anyone we’ve ever seen. Sure, superstars get calls all the time, but Chris Paul is actively changing how referees think. He’s telling them what’s going to happen ahead of time, how to call it, and doing such with absolute charm (do his beautiful eyelashes come into play here? I’m not sure). It’s like a gambler being best friends with all the Blackjack dealers in Vegas. For entertainment purposes, take it upon yourself to count how many times he has his arm around an official in a single game. Here’s an example of him swinging a call the Clippers had no business getting, and his usual “friendliness” towards referees:

When you first look at his abilities and then throw all of the small things – his ability to coach his teammates and sway referees, his undeniable ability to thrive in crunch time, his cutthroat-nature and competitive drive – there is really no case for other point guards.

If unconvinced about the importance about the smaller things, or unfamiliar with how he stacks up with other guards, it’s still very easy to see the impact of Chris Paul. He was the driving force behind the Clippers 21% increase in winning percentage over one season (39% to 60%); other than a few roster changes which included an incapacitated Billups and some people not arriving until mid season, Paul was the only “big change”. Furthermore, in 2011-12, when he was on the court, his team had a higher offensive rating than any other team in the league (a stellar 114.2).

Onto Lebron James:

Scoring Ability – 9.5

Shooting – 8.6

Rebounding – 8.5

Defense – 9.4

Ball Control – 8.3

Basketball IQ – 8.7

Passing Ability – 9.0

Lebron James comes out with an even 62.0. He is unmatched physically, one of the game’s best scorers and passers, and also one of its best defenders; he beats Paul (60.8) by a noticeable margin. But why is it that the question “Who is the league’s best point guard?” comes up far more than “Who is better, Paul or James?” The gap in all-around talent between Paul and Lebron is actually less than that between Paul and other point guards, and we haven’t even factored in the intangibles yet – where James happens to get blown out of the water.

Yep, Paul has a lion heart that beats with a pulse that his teammates can feel. He’s a better coach. He gets his teammates involved until he’s absolutely needed. He consistently draws charges and frustrates opponents. Because of him, when the Clippers are playing, calls don’t go 50/50. And with the game on the line, Paul is as surefire as they come (though Lebron James is not nearly as bad in the clutch as the media makes him out to be).

While James impacts the game more by himself, Paul greater impacts his teammates’ abilities, their drive, their confidence, and sometimes, their overall chances. This is what value truly is (Nash, I see you too). I won’t review how Chris Paul is more well-rounded than other elite point guards, I won’t bring up his incredible offensive rating of 126, his otherworldly 4.5 assist to turnover ratio, that his PER is incredibly high for his position, the fact that he’s carrying a very mediocre basketball team further than he should be … just remember that Chris Paul is that dude that’s always doing the little things, the things that his team needs him to. And that’s why he’s just so valuable.

What does Kobe think about all this?

 

Rejoice, Want-To-Smite-Hollingerites! KOTC is here to precisely explain why stats aren’t everything. With a simple understanding of each statistic’s true substance, you can easily confute your buddies’ flawed arguments regarding the abilities, performances, and/or tendencies of teams and players.

Most basketball enthusiasts have likely heard the saying, “Every stat is flawed.” But to what degree are they flawed? And in what ways? More importantly, perhaps, how are they misunderstood or misused? Let’s review.

Points – The most basic and lovable of all statistics in basketball. How does a team win a basketball game? Simply by scoring the most points. Scoring points not only looks good, points are undeniably valuable – higher point totals are generally correlated with more value considering that they only true “necessary” statistic to accumulate for one to become victorious.

Misuse – Using points as a barometer for success is only an accurate measure if certain things are also taken into consideration: Field Goal Attempts, Field Goal Percentage, Minutes Played, and the opposing team’s defensive ability.

Misinterpretation –

Player A: 33 points, 9-13 shooting.
Player B: 30 points, 10-12 shooting.

Who had a better game? Hopefully you went with Player B. Even if you score more points this doesn’t equate to you having played a better game. Efficiency matters. Just because you didn’t score points, it doesn’t mean you didn’t help your teammates score them; it also doesn’t mean you didn’t prevent the other team from scoring extra.

Assists – The assist statistic looks to suggest how much a player is helping his teammates score their baskets. Assist totals can be a good indicator of this, but there are some things to note.

Misinterpretation – Assist totals depend on four major things: 1) Passing ability, 2) the capabilities of your teammates, 3) the tendencies of your teammates, and 4) the amount you possess the ball. The second one, you absolutely no control of. With the third and fourth, you may not have much say, either. This is important to consider when looking at assist numbers.

Also: Saying Player A is a superior passer to Player B because he averages more assists is the wrong conclusion to reach. The reality is that many baskets are scored when there is essentially no help given, yet, an assist is recorded. The exact opposite applies to many situations as well (occurrence of hockey assists, unnecessary dribbles, etc.).

Steals – Steals are pretty straightforward – how much a player is taking the opposition’s possessions and making them his own via snatching the ball. This number in the box score is a decent indicator of how much one pesters their opponents, but not always.

Misuse – When identifying a player’s defensive ability, despite it being not a very reliable indicator, people will use steals.  Players who gamble a lot and poke at the ball will often produce high steal totals, but this doesn’t mean they are necessarily playing effective defense.  Case and point: Bruce Bowen. One of the best perimeter defenders ever, and averaged a mere 0.8 steals per game over his career.

Blocks – Block totals signify how many times a player redirects the opposition’s shot, disallowing them a scoring opportunity on that particular attempt. Blocks are one of my favorite statistics because block totals are quite telling of defensive activity and they are a reliable statistic at the same time. The capability or incapability teammates, for one, doesn’t really affect your production in this category.

Misuse – Similar to steals, people will often use blocks to gauge a player’s defensive worth. But consider: Good shot blockers often alter many shots. This is very valuable, yet it’s not written down in the stat sheet. I can average 142 blocks and be a better defensive player than you even if you average 185. I can also assure the shots I block are retrievable by my teammates (Duncan), and this is of more worth than if I were to block shots in a way that sends them out of bounds (Howard). It’s important to consider that I can also block slightly less, but if I foul significantly less as well, I should be deemed a better shotblocker, too. So – while blocks totals are indicative of a certain type of activity, they do not accurately represent a player’s defensive ability.

Total Rebounds – Controlling the rebounds means you are guaranteeing your team a certain number of possessions. Rebounds are very valuable and a rather telling statistic, but there are additional things to consider.

Misinterpretation – Not all of the important information is given when looking at Total Rebounds. Though they are lumped together in this statistic, offensive rebounds are unquestionably more valuable than defensive rebounds – they are so valuable that a leading sports economist and analyst over the years, David Berri, went as far as to assign offensive rebounds 3.82 points in his calculations. Not to mention that again, numbers in this category are dependent on teammate ability.

Turnovers – The true importance of this statistic is often overlooked. The act of a turnover is much worse than something like a missed shot; it guarantees that your team has no more looks at the basket and it often gives the other team a prime opportunity to score. Still, this statistic is misused in some circumstances.

Misuse: Turnover totals dependent on how much you are in possession of the ball. This is one of the reasons why Chris Paul and Jose Calderon (whoa!) are incredible point guards. Jeremy Lin received a lot of flak for his high turnover rate this season, and rightly so, but it looks better when you take into account how much he was being expected to produce for his team by his lonesome.

(ADV) Player Efficiency Rating – A simple rating designed to estimate a player’s total contributions while on the floor. A very telling statistic, but not always applicable and not always indicative of true worth – especially with role players.

Misinterpretation – Many regard PER as some sort of all-telling statistic. The fact is it has many noticeable flaws. On this very website, I have challenged the merit of PER before. To keep it short, Player Efficiency has five noticeable issues:

1. It rewards inefficient shooting. Players can improve their PER by shooting a mere 30.4% (more efficient scoring is more highly rewarded in this formula, of course).
2. It overvalues rebounds. John Hollinger gives more value to rebounds than most other statisticians.
3. The formula relies on estimates and approximations and applies them to all players when calculating their rating.
4. The formula does not reward players for defense seen outside of stealing, blocking, and refraining from fouling.
5. It does not account for special circumstances such as players playing exclusively in “garbage time” or against second units exclusively.

(ADV) Usage Rate – The concept of Usage Rate is rather simple: How much of a team’s possessions a player uses for himself. However, the problem with this statistic largely with how it’s misinterpreted.

Misinterpretation: Field goal attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers – these are the only three things that constitute the “usage” of a team’s possession. Having a low usage rate does not mean that you don’t have the ball in your hands a large percentage of the time. Furthermore, having a low usage rate and getting a lot of assists does not mean you’re extra good, rather, it means you pass the ball before you shoot it.

(ADV) Assist Percentage – Just like assists, assist percentages are dependent on four different things. See: Assists.

(ADV) Offensive Rating – A number that looks to indicate a player’s efficiency at producing points for his team. A “produced point”, in this formula, occurs when a player makes a field goal, free throw, gets an offensive rebound, or gets an assist. The rate at which these events occur in relation to a player using a “possession” is how his offensive rating is determined. An unsuccessful possession occurs with a missed field goal or free throw that the defense rebounds, or a turnover.

Misinterpretation: Having a high offensive rating does not mean you are a great offensive player – in fact, sometimes, it means quite the opposite. Situational scorers like Tyson Chandler and Joel Anthony will have high offensive ratings because they only look to score when it is possible for them. They will not accrue many missed field goals or turnovers, and furthermore, their misses are often short shots that are easily rebounded by the offense. This of course does not mean they are a better offensive players than many talented perimeter scorers, for instance.

(ADV) Defensive Rating – Defensive Rating is used to describe a player’s defensive contributions while on the floor. It is essentially the defensive version of Plus Minus. Overall, it’s not a very reliable statistic. This is because it is highly dependent on the product of your teammates – if they do a great job of stopping the offense from scoring, your individual rating will benefit. See: Carlos Boozer.

Game Winners – Statheads like myself love the in-depth nature of 82games.com, but those with an agenda may choose to cherry pick it’s most deceptive, and frankly, meaningless stat: Game Winners. While addrsesing a different point, I alluded to the fact that efficiency matters when reviewing statistics. It really matters in this case because a missed shot oftens leads to a lost game. There is a reason why I cringe when many claim Kobe Bryant to be one of the clutchest performers in the history of sports: He has many made shots (selective memory), but he has many, many misses. People forget to consider not only the field goal percentage of players in such situations, but how many opportunities they are going to get to score – plays run for them, the ball fed to them, and so on.

Plus Minus – Generally speaking, Plus Minus is not improperly used or misunderstood. But when drawing conclusions, there are things to be considered. Plus Minus attempts to illustrate how much impact a player has on the overall score when on the floor. This can be valuable information, but only if concerning large sample sizes and when the player is playing with a variety of units. This is because his individual numbers will be impacted by the performances of everyone else on the floor.

Alright, bear with me a little longer. We’ve made it through the tough part. We know how much stats offer, and what they don’t really offer (at this point I hope you’ll agree that it’s a significant amount). But here’s where stats are completely lacking – parts of the game for which there are no stats whatsoever:

Defensive Ability – Blocks and steals are poor indicators of a player’s defensive output. Defensive rating is highly influenced by the abilities of a player’s teammates. So what statistic out there tells when a player makes his opponent work extra hard on every possession? Does all the things that irk him? Pushes him out of his favorite spots, makes him take low percentage shots, and forces him to go directions he doesn’t like? There isn’t one.

Basketball IQ – A huge one. Inexperienced players and the sons of Peter Griffin, i.e. Blake, would likely post poor numbers if this were a statistic. Having a high or low basketball IQ affects the majority of things you partake in as a basketball player. A player can have killer statistics yet be much less valuable than such numbers might suggest. This may be the case if they take poor shots (if you’re Blake Griffin, you take poor “dunks” that result in automatic offensive fouls and near-injuries), take shots at inopportune times, don’t pass well, don’t screen or space well, don’t defend well, put their teammates in a bad position, foul excessively or at the wrong time, turn the ball over excessively, and so on.

Hustle Points – Securing a loose ball in the closing seconds can do wonders for your team, but it doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. The potential benefits for providing that extra bit of hustle? It’s a long list: Cutting extra quickly to create just enough space for a passer to connect on a pass so you can score; rotating a little bit harder to keep your team’s defense that much more crisp; outmuscling everyone for that rebound when the game is on the line; sprinting your fastest to get back and defend in transition; defending everyone to the best of your ability despite any physical disadvantage  … if there were a statistic for these things, Anderson Varejao would lead in it and I think that deep down, that pains all of us. But it’s still important.

Teamwork Points – Steve. Nash. Yes, the dude passes well. But he also has everyone on his team passing more, congratulating each other after nice plays, helping each other up, and even has them on proper diet regimens. Basketball is a team sport, and what you do to bring your team to come together as “one” is invaluable. Show me a statistic for that.

Stats – they are great, but only if you know what you’re doing with them. And basketball? Even more wonderful, because analyzing it calls for a balance of  statistical understanding and various intricacies that the numbers can’t describe. There’s really nothing like it.

Well, we made it. After a seemingly never-ending lockout and a chaotic series of events we classify as the “2011-12 Regular Season”, the playoffs are finally here. This year’s predictions:

WEST 1st ROUND

(4) Memphis vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers

One of the most intriguing matchups over the span of the playoffs, as both teams have qualities that pose as problems for one another. Memphis has big athletic wings, great defense, and enough offensive options to confuse the Clippers’ unsure defense. LAC has Griffin’s athleticism, a better bench, and this dude named CP3 or some’. 4-3 Memphis.

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas

I ache to put Dallas – a team that made 2011 OKC appear youthfully befuddled – as the winner here. But I just can’t, as there is too much of a gap in their offensive abilities this year. OKC boasted the number one offense throughout the regular season, and Dallas’ rank sat at a dismissible twenty-second in the league. Granted, OKC’s offense will worsen (see: http://www.keeperofthecourt.com/2012/03/29/oklahoma-city-empty-hope/) and Dallas’ will likely improve via the heroics of Nowizki and the intelligence of Carlisle, but the Mavs aren’t quite the same this year. 4-2 Thunder.

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah

Utah is playing some great basketball, and their style is suited for playoffs. But the Spurs are just too darn good right now. Their great team passing, perimeter-orientated nature, and quick pace all spell trouble for the Jazz. 4-1 Spurs.

(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets

Artest is out of the series? I see this mattering very little against the Denver Nuggets. Barnes has risen to a level we didn’t know he still had (an underrated rebounder and defender) and can easily fill any Artest-left void. “Bigs” pose as a huge problem for the Nuggets – not only do the Nuggets lack size and consistency in post defense to counter Bynum and Gasol, McGee will likely score on his own team’s basket.  4-2 Lakers.

EAST 1st ROUND

(4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta

We really don’t have any idea how tired players are after this chaotic series of events we classify as the “2011-12 season”. Though they should, I predict Boston won’t have quite enough in the tank to easily dismiss a young, seemingly-will-never-understand Hawks roster. Even given this fatigue of theirs, though, not having Horford hurts Atlanta’s chances to clear the hump, and intelligent basketball, star power, and superior coaching by the will Celtics prevail. 4-3 Celtics.

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando

Simple pick. The Magic are without their best asset (if you said to yourself, “They are without their 3 point shooting?” give yourself a slap), there are embarrassing issues lingering concerning relations between the coach and their players, and Indiana is at the top of their game and has a lot to prove. 4-0 Pacers.

(1) Chicago vs. (8) Philadelphia

I’d love to see Iggy go berserk. I’d love to see Philadelphia throw something at Chicago, something other than somewhat-capable offensive players that provide brief flashes of excellence. But it won’t happen. Expect a nitty-gritty series where Philly is eventually overwhelmed by Chicago’s superior offense and roster. 4-1 Bulls.

(2) Miami vs. (7) New York

My second pick for most entertaining series in the playoffs. NYK failed to establish any identity for themselves all season; luckily, they recently figured out what works for them. Can they maintain this style of play offensively, given that Amare’s back?

I see Amare’s presence adding uncertainty to their tactical approach. Furthermore, NYK’s Melo-oriented offense won’t last long in a series when the other team has extra time to prepare and adjust, and Lebron James – one of the only players that can match Melo both physically and talent-wise – is waiting to pounce. NYK’s high turnover rate will also have Miami drooling at the mouth. In sum, anticipate an entertaining series with great matchups – Shumpert/Wade, LBJ/Melo, and Chandler’s forearm/LBJ – with a score that won’t end up being so close. 4-1 Heat.

WEST 2nd ROUND

Memphis (4) vs San Antonio (1)

Let’s review a discovery of mine:

Last year when these teams matched up, Randolph and Gasol as a pair averaged 35.62 points, 21.5 rebounds on 51% shooting. Blair, Duncan, Splitter, and McDyess – four bigs, mind you – averaged 29.28 points, 23.17 rebounds on 45.77% shooting. This looks bad, right?

Consider this: The Spurs are not only better than last year in nearly every aspect, they are rested, healthy, and they are surging. Consider that they have Boris Diaw and a greatly improved Tiago Splitter to combat against a hobbling Randolph (and Gasol). Then consider that at this point last year, that nothing-to-lose Memphis Grizzlies team was certainly a better team than they are now. Oh, and Popovich will never, ever lose two consecutive series to a team that isn’t superior. 4-1 Spurs.

Oklahoma City (1) vs. Los Angeles (3)

OKC’s greatest advantage over LA in the recent past has been their superiority at the point guard position. This glaring weakness of LA’s is no more. LA’s coming into a nice stride here as the season ends, Gasol often plays well versus the Thunder, and Kobe’s newfound trust in his teammates could prove key. I also believe Artest will slow down Durant significantly just as he did two years ago. 4-3 Lakers.

EAST 2nd ROUND

(2) Miami vs. (3) Indiana

Indiana will have two distinct advantages: Roy Hibbert and rebounding. The Heat have essentially everything else in their favor. 4-1 Heat.

(1) Chicago vs. (4) Boston

The Bradley-Rose matchup will be entertaining to see provided my picks aren’t completely off and this writing is in vain. However, Chicago matches up very well with Boston in just about every way. Chicago is certainly better on both ends and will absolutely crush Boston on rebounds, the league’s worst in that category. Boston will exhibit signs of noticeable fatigue at this point and crumble. 4-2 Bulls.

WEST CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio  vs. (3) Los Angeles

The Spurs can overtake LAL with little resistance. SAS routing LAL by a combined 45 points over their last two was no fluke. SAS understands how to guard LAL’s bigs, Kawhi’s defense on Kobe is top-notch, and the Lakers’ perimeter defense won’t cut it against the Spurs, as Parker and their three point shooting will absolutely wreak havoc. 4-2 Spurs.

EAST CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) Chicago vs. (2) Miami

Woo. Woo. There’s so much to talk about here, I don’t know where to begin. Maybe I won’t. Even with Chicago’s improved team passing, they doesn’t bring forth enough offense, and the talent of Miami shines. 4-2 Miami.

NBA 2011-12 FINALS

(2) Miami vs. (1) San Antonio

The league’s true best teams going at it. The Spurs are too good this year to lose to anyone but the Miami Heat and that’s for one reason, the very reason that they lose in a close game: they can only be beat if outclassed in terms of talent. The Spurs have experience, coaching, well-balanced attacks, bench play, and teamplay on their side. The Miami Heat have overwhelming talent and perimeter play on theirs, and that’s all they need. 4-3 Heat.

Wait … what’s that? A Hoopopotamus sighting! His mouth seems to be moving. What is he saying? What could it be?

“Many desire the ability to know what will happen in the 2012 NBA Playoffs. After wallowing in obscurity and silence during the cold winter, I arise out of snow to offer you the results of the playoffs.”

EAST 1st ROUND

(1) Chicago vs. (8) Philadelphia

The battle of Duke power forwards. Boozer vs. Brand. Neither makes the difference. Chicago grinds out a “hard to watch” series, 4-3.

(4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta

Is Paul Pierce OK?  He appears to be in pain?  Oh, that’s just the face he makes after a big shot.  Too many of these and too much Rondo leads to a painful loss for the Hawks.  Boston earns a matchup with Da Bulls, 4-3.

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando

The Magic tirelessly hoist 30 shots per game beyond the 3-point line.  Bill Simmons prematurely celebrates another example of the “Ewing Theory.” The magic runs out, and Indiana prevails.  Pacers, 4-2.

(2) Miami vs. (7) New York

Skip Bayless raves as Carmelo Anthony routinely puts on display his “clutch gene” in the 4th quarter.  Unfortunately, the display merely cuts the deficit from 14 point, to 7.  Heat win easily, 4-1.

WEST 1st ROUND

(1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah

Don’t worry, Spurs fans.  No Z-Bo heroics.  No Tony Allen haircuts.  Just a finely tuned San Antonio offense passing around the large bodies of the Utah Jazz.  San Antonio cruises, 4-0.

(4) Memphis vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin can’t seem to come down from the high of making the playoffs.  To his chagrin, this doesn’t mean he can dunk from the 3-point line.  Blake grows frustrated. Clippers grow cold.  Memphis moves to the Conference Semifinals for the second straight year, 4-2.

(3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (6) Denver Nuggets

“QUEENSBRIDGE!!!”….is definitely not in the building for the first 6 games of this series.  Denver possesses the offensive explosion to exploit a slumping Laker defense, while the Manimal and JAVALE MCGEE do just enough to keep Pau and Bynum from winning the series on the boards.  Denver pulls the upset, 4-3.

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas

Oklahoma City exercises the demon of playoff past – an unstoppable Dirk Nowitzki.  It is not 2011 and the Mavericks don’t have the same mojo.  Russell Westbrook will punish the perimeter defense of Dallas.  The Thunder rolls forward, 4-2.

EAST 2nd ROUND

(1) Chicago vs. (4) Boston

Boston players find themselves easily distracted by the nostalgic sound of Coach Thibadeu’s voice barking on the sideline.  Meanwhile, the Bulls lock it up on defense and Rose finds his stride.  Too much rebounding and defense for Chicago spells doom for the original Big 3.  Chicago trudges through to the Conference Finals, 4-2.

(2) Miami vs. (3) Indiana

In anticipation of learning Carlos Boozer’s hair secrets, Lebron utterly dominates the up-and-coming Pacers.  Indiana will show promise, but the dominance of Wade and James will overwhelm the Pacers at the end of games.  Derrick Rose weeps, as he will not have the opportunity to live up to his “I will always remember this” promise to the Pacers.  Miami sets up the rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, 4-2.

WEST 2nd ROUND

(1) San Antonio vs. (4) Memphis

REMATCH! The Spurs sought revenge during the regular season and found it, winning the season series 4-0. Don’t be fooled, the Grizzlies possess the defense, size, and just enough scoring to defeat the Spurs.  Tim Duncan will shake his head in frustration as the dense low-post combination of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol does them in again.  As John Legend would say, “they keep doin’ it again!” Memphis, 4-3.

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (6) Denver

If I told you there would be a playoff series in which both playoffs teams would consistently score above 100 points, pace would be anti-slow, and Bodie from “The Wire” will flash athleticism only seen in “Space Jam,” is this something you would be interested in?  The Nuggets simply don’t have the answers on defense for the Oklahoma City three-headed monster of Westbrook, Durant, and clear-headed Harden.  The Thunder score their way to the Conference Finals, 4-2.

EAST CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) Chicago vs. (2) Miami

Don’t get it twisted; Miami loves to run them some isolation offense.  But if they’re going to lose, it’s not going to be to an isolation-based, drive and kick offense like that of the Rose-led Bulls.  While the Bulls need Rose, the ball unfortunately will not maintain its hot potato-like quality it has taken on over the final stretch of games.  Chicago loses, but Lebron tracks down a distraught Carlos Boozer just in time in order to exchange phone numbers.  The Bulls make it close, but the Heat win in 6.

WEST CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Oklahoma City vs. (4) Memphis

Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, Tony Allen cannot guard everyone.  The length and interior defense of OKC poses enough of a challenge for the Memphis big men to slow them down, putting too much pressure on their outside shooting.  Still, Thunder fans grow concerned as the offense falls into jump-shot mode at the end of games and standing around the perimeter becomes commonplace.  Scott Brooks gets questioned in media and rightfully exposed as a liability.  OKC gets over the hump and into the finals, 4-3.

NBA 2011-12 FINALS

(2) Miami vs. (2) Oklahoma City

Lebron forgets that he is playing in the NBA Finals.  Rather than being a negative, it actually allows him to continually attack the Thunder defense with disregard for the possibility of failure.  OKC plays good defense, but ultimately doesn’t possess the discipline to consistently cutoff driving lanes for D-Wade and LBJ.  Assertive Lebron shows up, Wade hits big shots, and Bosh grabs just enough careens to average an astonishing 8 rebounds a game.  Too much will, too much need, too much Wade and Lebron.  The Heat seals the deal.  Miami in 6.

-Hoopopotamus and KOTC wishing you a Merry Playoffs.

Picture this: You’re widely considered as a superstar of the National Basketball Association. Your name is Amare Stoudemire and you recently signed a breathtaking $100 million contract with a team that boasts the largest market in the basketball world, the New York Knicks. You even enter the MVP conversation in your first few months of play, seemingly carrying your team. And now, this:

Ouch.

How can this be? Is it really that a “superstar” – an athletic, versatile big man and a rarity at that – is making his team worse? In this case, it appears to be so; the above statistics suggest that the Knicks are better off without him, primarily at the defensive end. I, for one, have criticized Amare’s spotty rebounding and defensive inability for years, so the defensive aspect did not surprise me. Still, I was convinced there was a little more to the Knicks’ problems.

The statistics above show us point per game (PPG) production and allowance. A good, but not great measure of offensive and defensive efficiency; turnovers, quality of shots taken and allowed, pace etc. is not accounted for in PPG. So let’s dig a little deeper. Here’s a look at various Knicks’ statistics with Amare and without him (Per Game Basis, statistics from Basketball-Reference):

Offensive Rating with Amare: 103.470
Offensive Rating without Amare: 108.611
Defensive Rating with Amare: 102.136
Defensive Rating without Amare: 100.626
Total Rebounds with Amare: 42.364
Total Rebounds without Amare: 41.526
Total Assists with Amare: 20.318
Total Assists without Amare: 19.00
Total FG% with Amare: 43.707%
Total FG% without Amare: 44.737%

The Knicks defense indeed has been worse with him in the lineup (+1.51 DRTG). But that’s not where the most of their troubles lie – their offense takes a much more significant hit (-5.141 ORTG), actually. Note that with him they assist slightly more and rebound a little better, so it doesn’t appear that he’s hogging the ball or relaxing on his glass-related duties at their expense.^[27] So offensively, where are they being hurt? Their FG% is worse with him in the lineup, which gives us a little insight.

To conclude that the Knicks can’t connect on shots quite as well with Amare playing (for whatever reason) and that is the simple cause for their offense struggling – well, that’d probably be incorrect. If we recall, the disparity in ORTG with and without him is rather significant. This suggests that not only are they not getting as good looks at the basket (hence a slightly lower FG%), Amare isn’t doing other things that lead to a successful offense for his teammates. This could include making the correct passes, spacing the floor well, setting good screens, and/or perhaps taking shots within the offense. In other words, not only are they making a smaller percentage of their shots with him on the floor, they are making more mistakes and making shots of lesser worth. Factor in the fact that he also makes them worse defensively, and you’ve got a solid recipe for losing.

I must say: In considering the unique talents and personalities of the Knicks – in addition to the unfortunate injuries they have suffered this season – I just can’t help but root for them (Lin! TONY DOUGLAS!!! Oh, wait). I really hope they figure things out come playoff time.

So, Amare – that’s your cue. Get on that bench.

April 15, 2012 – It would be “Scrutiny Kings: Championship or Bust” pitted against “We Resurge with a New Identity Every 5 Seconds”. What new identity, what scrutiny would there be after the events of tonight? Only time would tell.

The Heat took the floor. Taking the hot seat was Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Udonis Haslem, and a feeble brachiosaurus at center, known by some as Chris Bosh.

Lebron made his way over to the scorers’ table. Soon after, the inexplicable happened: He proceeded to toss an inordinate amount of baby powder into the air. Questions raced through the minds of viewers: Where did he get that? Does it smell good? Does he really think there are baby bottoms up there? Then: nothing but white. White everywhere. The front row fans, completely caught off guard, got the absolute worst of it. For onlookers, it quickly became a horrible sight – as the powdered substance seeped into the fans’ eyes, tears poured down their face; the sound of hacking coughs pierced ears as they desperately attempted to inhale breathable air. Worst of all, perhaps, was Lebron’s somber demeanor; he seemed completely unaffected by his heinous doings. Was this planned? Did he merely want to share his abundance of powder? Regardless of intent, he remained unfazed by the happenings. Game time, he said.

Out came the Knicks. Leading them into battle was Baron Davis, Iman Shumpert, Landry Fields, Carmelo Anthony, and Tyson Chandler.

All eyes were on Carmelo. He started to tuck his shirt into his shorts in a powerful yet precise fashion, instantly ridding it of every last wrinkle. Why was he always doing this last minute, seconds before the tip off is about to occur? We can only guess: He just went to the bathroom. Every time.

And game time it was. Tyson’s time to shine. If he were to lose a jump ball to dinosaur, what would that say about him? And not only did he want to prove his jump ball competency; the day before, he had read on ESPN about him being a supposed offensive liability. How could they! He knew the truth: My jumper is wet. They don’t know nothin’, he thought.  He had big shooting plans for later. But for now, a successful jump ball would have to do.

The jump ball ensued. Knick ball.

Things happened. We jump to 5:39 remaining in the fourth quarter. 81-80, Miami was up by one. Carmelo dribbled up the court with a firey look in his eyes. He felt a toot coming, but this wasn’t the time – he worked to sustain his fearsome expression. Lebron stepped up in the form of a defensive crab-like creature. Lebron had great lateral movement and he knew it. Didn’t matter. Tyson Chandler slammed into him at an angle from behind. His screen was a foul like many of his are; enacting a full body thrust with the speed and purpose like prime Michael Jackson at a live concert, Tyson shaboomed Lebron and his crab-like presence, briefly making him a complete non-factor. Joel Anthony duly slid over to cover Carmelo Anthony as Lebron was taken out of the play. Melo put his head down and directed himself to the right side of the perimeter. As Lebron began to recover and Melo was double teamed, Melo realized he must take action. He continued dribbling forth, straight into a triple team. Yes! Exactly what he wanted. If he scored now, he would be immortal!

But at that moment, Junior Smith called for the ball at the top of the key. Damn, he thought. If I don’t pass, he’ll probably be a little sad. J.R. received a quick overhead pass. He faked the shot, jetted for the rim and passed his defender, only to toss it straight back to Melo. It was the weirdest give and go exchange ever – two players who you’d never expect to pass, passing to each other. Melo immediately hoisted up a shot. Swish. At that very moment, the whistle blew – “Three in the key”, the official said. Melo smiled. The score didn’t change, but the feeling in his heart did. The crisp sound of the ball passing through the net; the cheery roar of the people who don’t understand the rules; the little bit of extra down time that people could spend reflecting on his shotmake – it all resonated in his heart and he couldn’t help but have a big ‘ole grin. Carmelo Anthony: a happy go-lucky straight-up killer. The NBA’s smiliest assassin ever.

Two possessions later – Wade dribbled the ball up the court. A peppy and youthful, inexplicably precise defender in Iman Shumpert stepped up to stop him. But unlucky for him, Shump ran into an even more precise screen from Joel Anthony, one of the best 6’9½” offensively-limited, poor-rebounding, not-that-athletic-or-tall-but-somehow-still-a-good-shotblocking likely-pissed-off-by-the-fact-that-his-role-will-infinitely-remain-unchanged players of all-time. Wade was free. He danced around the lane like a bat out of hell; forcing switches, throwing in fakes and making Knick players’ hearts rapido, the stage was his to  himself. Tyson Chandler found himself isolated. Shit, Tyson thought. Isn’t that Dwyane Wade? He must be 7’0”! And his vertical leap, his ball-handling! They must be above average, at least! I bet he has a wet jumper too, just like mine. Wade could sense Tyson shaking in his boots. Tyson’s extended arm offered no resistance or distraction; everyone in the arena knew that any action of Tyson’s would be futile at this point. Wade calmly pulled up for the jumper. Nothing but rim and net.

The game was soon out of the Knicks’ hands. Miami won by an eventual score of 93-85.

There was baby powder, there were dirty screens, there were unexpected passes, and there were post-whistle shotmakes.

And on this night, there were champions: The Miami Heat.